UK general election: What it could mean for Israel

“This election is not about Right and Left; it’s about right or wrong.” These words are part of the campaign speech of a former Conservative British Member of Parliament, Andrew Bridgen.

Fourteen years since the Conservative Party regained political power in Great Britain, albeit through an alliance with the Liberal Democrats, the Labour Party is poised to take control. Labour had been governing for the 13 years leading up to 2010, after former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997.

Although Labour’s current leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is not as charismatic as Blair, political commentators have described this moment as not dissimilar to the mood in 1997, when Blair brought to an end a long Conservative reign under the steely Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) and John Major (1990-1997).

Local elections held in May of this year were an embarrassment for Conservatives throughout the United Kingdom and were likely a sign of what will transpire over the next 24 hours, as the Brits spend July 4 going to the polls.

Although polling is not always accurate, indications are that the Conservative Party could win fewer than 100 out of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. The Jewish Telegraphic Agency writes that this would be “their worst defeat since the advent of modern democracy in Britain in 1832.”

So what does this election mean for Israel?

Starmer, the projected next prime minister, has come under fire from both Muslim members of his party, and large numbers of Muslim voters over not calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza War, which began with the Hamas invasion and terror attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7.

While Starmer may have redeemed himself, in the eyes of the British Jewish community and others, since his ousting of former leader Jeremy Corbyn, a known Hamas supporter, Starmer still has hard leftists within his inner circle.

“Starmer may have rid the Labour party of its most egregious antisemites…” wrote Melanie Phillips, in a column piece entitled, ‘The only question is how bad Labour will be for the Jews.'"

“...But as in the progressive world in general, he has drawn a wholly artificial line between Jew-hatred and the demonisation of Israel that is now de rigeur on the left.”

Should Labour win, it may now be bound to recognize a Palestinian state based on its “deliberately ambiguous” manifesto, following a list of 18 ultimatums sent by the Muslim community to Starmer, if he is to secure their collective vote.

In addition, if David Lammy becomes the next British foreign secretary, he may well stop the UK from sending arms to Israel. Jewish MP Fabian Hamilton, speaking at a hustings at a mosque last week, was unequivocal about this.

“On the issue of arms sales, if we win the election next week we will stop arms sales to Israel immediately,” said the former shadow foreign minister, according to the Daily Telegraph.

Although the current foreign secretary, Lord David Cameron, has come under pressure to review military support for Israel, he held his ground and also spoke out strongly against Hamas, challenging the BBC network to label the organization as ‘terrorists.’

On Starmer’s front bench is the outspoken Lisa Nandy, shadow international development minister, who recently confessed on television to being a long-time campaigner for Palestinian rights.

Starmer’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, was filmed recently sitting in the middle of a circle of Muslim constituents, telling them how much she and her party support Gaza and “will recognize Palestine.”

While current UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak famously told his Israeli counterpart, “We want you to win,” in the aftermath of the horrific Hamas atrocities, the Conservative position has not been as strong for Israel as it could have been.

Many Brits feel there have not been strong, unequivocal calls from the Parliamentary Despatch Box, for Hamas to release the hostages and lay down their arms, without, in the same breath, criticizing Israel for its treatment of civilians on the battlefield.

Many in Britain, including the popular Reform Party leader Nigel Farage, believe there is virtually no difference in the policies of the Conservative and Labour parties, and therefore radical change is required.

The veteran politician, credited by many with bringing about Brexit, is also a presenter on GB News and a vocal supporter of Israel.

It remains to be seen whether, as often occurs, the rise of smaller parties will dilute the Conservative vote and award the Labour Party a major landslide. Certainly, this appears to be an historic election, during which many Brits will vote with their conscience, and many will vote tactically to remove the Conservatives from power.