Tel Aviv University study reveals seismic signature of Hamas Oct 7 attack

The Hamas Oct. 7 massacre last year, which claimed the lives of 1,200 men, women and children, is widely regarded as the worst intelligence failure in Israeli history. In September, IDF Brig.-Gen. Yossi Sariel, head of the elite 8200 military intelligence unit, took responsibility for the failure and resigned.

A new study from Tel Aviv University (TAU) has identified the seismic signature of the large Hamas force that infiltrated southern Israeli border communities on that day. The seismic data could be a significant intelligence tool for detecting future attacks.

"The results show that on the morning of October 7th, seismic stations located in southern Israel detected weak ground motions caused by the unusual movement of heavy vehicles (e.g., tractors, bulldozers, and trucks) within the Gaza Strip. This scientific breakthrough highlights the potential of using seismic data to provide early warnings for future terrorist activities," the authors noted in the study, published in "The Seismic Record," a journal of the Seismological Society of America.

TAU scholar Dr. Asaf Inbal led the groundbreaking study, confirming that seismometers detected Gazan vehicular activity before the Hamas attack.

“The Israeli Geological Survey operates a nationwide network of dozens of highly sensitive seismometers that continuously monitor ground motions. This network is primarily designed to detect and locate earthquakes and warn of strong ground shaking caused by large-magnitude seismic events. However, three stations in the network – located in Amazia, Ktsiot and Yatir, between 30 and 50 kilometers from Gaza –recorded unusual seismic noise levels early in the morning of October 7th, 2023," Inbal explained.

"This noise can be attributed with confidence to the vehicular activity in Gaza as Hamas terrorists gathered for the attack. The time frame was between 6:00 and 6:30 AM, before the rocket fire began. The likelihood that the recorded signals originated from Gaza is over 99.9%.”

Inbal explained that seismic data showed Hamas forces moving along Salah al-Din Road, a key route in Gaza. The data revealed convoys of heavy vehicles, including bulldozers and trucks, heading to the northern and southern ends of Gaza just minutes before the attack.

"We have good resolution along Salah al-Din Road, a major thoroughfare crossing Gaza from Rafah in the south to Beit Lahia in the north. We can confirm with high certainty that their forces moved along this route at speeds of 25 to 50 km/h. Observations from stations dozens of kilometers from Gaza's border indicate convoys of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers and trucks carrying operatives," he said.

"Three minutes before the attack began, we detected noise sources reaching the northern end of Gaza near Beit Lahia and the southern end near Khan Yunis. At the same time, we continued receiving signals from central Gaza, near Nuseirat. We know the assault began almost simultaneously along the entire border, so these seismic observations provide further evidence of the extensive deployment of Hamas forces, likely enabling the simultaneous breach of the ground barrier," Inbal continued.

In September 2021, Israel completed the construction of a high-tech Gaza fence along the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, running both above and below the ground, literally blocking Hamas from constructing new attack tunnels.

At the time, then-Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz praised the border fence, saying that it “deprives Hamas of one of their capabilities, and places an iron wall, sensors and concrete between it and the residents of the South. Routine life here is our victory, and it is the greatest enemy of terror organizations,” Gantz assessed.

Yet, on Oct. 7, 2023, thousands of Hamas terrorists breached Israel’s border fence and launched a massive assault, devastating the local communities, committing atrocities against their victims and abducting 251 men, women and children of all ages into the Gaza Strip, with almost 40% of them – both alive and deceased – still in captivity.

While the TAU study will not change the tragic consequences of Oct. 7, it could potentially assist Israeli military leaders in detecting and preventing future attempts by terrorists to infiltrate the Jewish state and target Israeli civilians.

Inbal wrote: "On the morning of the attack, when local activity near the stations was minimal, we found unique widespread seismic amplitudes, which monotonically increased with time approaching the attack. No known natural or human source on the Israeli side could have generated seismic signals with a distribution and intensity similar to those attributed to Hamas movements."

"Although the outdoor music festival near Re'im generated some seismic noise, our analysis shows that this noise does not match the strength or location of the noise sources recorded by the Israeli seismic network on October 7th," Inbal concluded.