Lebanon ceasefire soon? ‘There is a shot’ says US envoy, but Hezbollah & France continue to reject Israeli demands

With the Biden administration pushing for a last foreign policy success, and the Trump team seeking to end wars before President Donald Trump takes office in January, efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement to end the fighting in Lebanon have advanced rapidly in recent weeks.

However, despite U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein saying Tuesday he believes there is a shot “of securing a ceasefire deal in Lebanon soon,” recent comments by Hezbollah, Lebanese officials and the French foreign minister have dampened the hopes again.

The hopeful comments from Hochstein, who is leading U.S. mediation efforts in the talks, came after Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer visited the U.S. on Monday and talked with all the senior foreign policy officials.

Dermer, who is seen as a kind of “special foreign minister” and a close Netanyahu confidant, met with Hochstein, White House Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk, and national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

The meetings were “productive,” an official told Axios, adding that they agreed on nearly all gaps regarding the wording of a truce agreement as well as a separate U.S. commitment to allow Israel to take military action in the case that the Lebanese Army or the U.N. peacekeepers again fail to prevent Hezbollah from smuggling weapons or reestablishing itself near the border.

“It is not quite a done deal, but close to it,” a U.S. official said.

In addition, Dermer also met with Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, telling them Israel wants to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon soon, according to the Washington Post.

“There is an understanding that Israel will give something to Trump... that in January there will be an understanding regarding Lebanon,” a source told the newspaper.

Following Dermer’s meetings, Israel’s Channel 12 reported Tuesday that Israel and the U.S. sent a draft outline to Lebanon and are waiting for a response.

The next day, the new Defense Minister Israel Katz stressed that Israel would not accept any agreement that doesn’t see Hezbollah withdraw and disarm, which is part of U.N. Resolution 1701 which has been the basis for ceasefire talks but hasn’t been mentioned yet as an official Israeli war goal.

“We will not agree to just any cease-fires, we will not take our foot off the gas, and we will not accept any agreement that does not include the achievement of the war goals,” Katz said while visiting the IDF’s Northern Command.

This includes “the disarmament of Hezbollah, its withdrawal beyond the Litani [River], and creating the conditions for the residents of the north to return to their homes in safety,” Katz added, while emphasizing that Israel must receive the right to enforce the agreement militarily, if necessary.

This stipulation was rejected, however, by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on Wednesday. “That is not compatible with the sovereignty of a strong country,” Barrot said in parliament, roughly a week after visiting Israel.

According to the Jerusalem Post, several diplomats have said there is a low chance that Hezbollah would accept this Israeli demand.

Meanwhile, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is leading the negotiations on behalf of Hezbollah, said that he hasn’t received any new proposals recently.

“What is on the table is only [United Nations] Resolution 1701 and its provisions, which must be implemented and adhered to by both sides, not by the Lebanese side alone,” Berri told the Saudi Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.

Berri’s political advisor, Ali Hassan Khalil, in an interview with Al Jazeera, reiterated that Israeli freedom of action in Lebanon would not be accepted: “The wording of the international resolution (1701) is clear, to prevent Israeli aggression, to prevent Israeli violations and any violation on land, sea or air is a violation of the content of this resolution.”

Taking an even stronger position, Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah said Wednesday that Israel must stop the fighting before discussions about steps the Lebanese state should take.

According to the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper al-Akhbar, the terror group, Berri and caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati agreed on three guiding principles for the negotiations with Israel.

First, they demand a complete stop to the war without any temporary truce or intermediary phases. Second, displaced Lebanese must be allowed to return to their homes within hours of the Israeli withdrawal. Third, the rehabilitation of southern Lebanon would not involve any external parties.

With these demands in place, and the rejection of Israel’s demands at the same time, it remains unclear how close a diplomatic resolution really is.