‘Hamas continues to pose threat to Israel, even in degraded form,’ US intelligence report says

The U.S. intelligence community has released its 2025 annual report, predicting continued instability in the Middle East due to the presence of jihadist groups and assessing that, despite suffering heavy losses over the past 18 months, the terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah will continue to pose a threat to Israel.

“The Israel-HAMAS conflict sparked by the HAMAS October 7 attack against Israel derailed the unprecedented diplomacy and cooperation generated by the Abraham Accords and trajectory of growing stability in the Middle East,” the report noted in a section detailing the Middle East conflict.

“We expect the situation in Gaza, as well as Israel-Hezbollah and Israel–Iran dynamics, to remain volatile.” 

The Senate intelligence report assessed that Hamas remains a clear threat to Israeli security, as it operates outside of the Gaza Strip. 

“Even in degraded form, HAMAS continues to pose a threat to Israeli security,” the report stated, citing the continued presence of “thousands of fighters” and its extensive underground infrastructure. 

The intelligence community estimates that the terror group has been using the previous hostage-ceasefire to resupply and recruit new fighters, noting, “HAMAS is capable of resuming a low-level guerrilla resistance and to remain the dominant political action in Gaza for the foreseeable future.” 

The report noted that the lack of a credible "day-after" plan for Gaza's political future and the enclave’s reconstruction, “portend years of instability.” 

Hamas’ ability to continue its terror campaigns against Israel is also due to its presence in the territories of Judea and Samaria (West Bank), as well as Arab and Muslim countries surrounding Israel, the report stated.

“While HAMAS’s popularity has declined among Gazans, its popularity remains high among West Bank Palestinians, especially relative to the Palestinian Authority (PA).”

As in previous years, the Senate intelligence report advocates for strengthening the PA as a viable alternative to Hamas both in Gaza and the Judea and Samaria region.

However, most Israeli politicians across the political spectrum doubt the PA is an honest partner. They point to years of support for Palestinian terrorism against Jews, calls for acts of “resistance,” and the participation of PA security forces in attacks against Israelis as proof that the PA is incapable of functioning as a peace partner. 

As the intelligence community was releasing its assessment, some positive signs have emerged. 

Over the past 24 hours, protests against Hamas broke out in several communities of the Gaza Strip, including Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya, and the former Hamas stronghold, Khan Younis. 

Footage posted to social media on Tuesday evening showed hundreds of people rallying against Hamas, calling for an end to the terror group’s rule in the enclave, and an end to their suffering. 

A few of the protesters even held signs in Arabic calling Hamas “terrorists.” The protests are seen as a positive development, given Hamas’ history of brutally suppressing political dissent.