Who will lead Hamas in Gaza if Mohammed Sinwar is confirmed dead?

Following the strikes on a tunnel complex in Khan Younis intended to kill senior Hamas official Mohammed Sinwar, Israel is already setting its sight on the possible next-in-line leader for the terror organization in Gaza. 

Mohammed Sinwar is the brother of former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during fighting in Rafah last October. 

In Israel, most defense officials and analysts believe that the next-in-line would be Izz al-Din al-Haddad, current commander of the Gaza City Brigade, and Hamas’ military wing in the northern Gaza Strip. However, another possible choice is Muhammad Shabana, the commander of the Rafah brigade. 

Haddad assumed control of the Gaza Brigade in 2021, following the assassination of former commander Bassem Issa. 

Both commanders have survived multiple assassination attempts by Israel over the years. Haddad was targeted by Israeli airstrikes on his home in 2008, 2012, 2021, and 2023. In November of 2023, after the ground campaign in the Gaza Strip had begun, Israel offered a $750,000 reward for information leading to Haddad’s capture or killing. 

Haddad held a senior role in the internal security organization founded by Yahya Sinwar, known as “al-Majd”, which tried to identify operatives collaborating with Israel. 

Haddad was also one of the senior commanders involved in planning the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, and giving the final instructions to the field commanders who would carry out the invasion. 

Following the killing of Yahya Sinwar, Haddad was reported by the Wall Street Journal to be serving as the second in command after Mohammed Sinwar, although the Journal reported that his command level over several battalions amounted to the effective “sharing” of control over the Hamas units in the Gaza Strip. 

Muhammad Shabana, the Rafah Brigade commander, assumed that position after the killing of several top Hamas commanders during the 2014 Operation Protective Edge. Shabana commanded Hamas’ elite Nukhba force, which led the Oct. 7 invasion. There was an attempt to kill Shabana during an airstrike on the a-Shabura refugee camp in Rafah last summer, but the attempt was unsuccessful. 

Both Haddad and Shabanah have lost sons during the war, with Haddad’s eldest son, Suhaib, being killed in an airstrike in January of this year. 

However, according to the most recent reports, the IDF now believes that Shabana may have been in the tunnel with Sinwar when the airstrikes were carried out on Tuesday. 

If that’s the case, there are only two main military leaders left in Gaza:

Gaza Brigade Commander Izz ad-Din al-Haddad

Hamxs Operations Department Chief Ra'ad Sa'ad https://t.co/VraiJdp0bZ pic.twitter.com/ou60g7xMdC

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 14, 2025

A third possibility being considered by Israel is Raed Sa’ad, the head of Hamas’ operations division. He has held senior command positions in Hamas’ Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades for over two decades, and has held a central role in shaping the organization’s doctrine of warfare, especially the focus on rocket warfare, the significant use of anti-tank missiles in ambushes, and the tunnel-fighting system. 

Sa’ad was another one of the central planners for the Oct. 7 attacks, and was close to both Yahyha Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. Israel tried to kill him in an airstrike on the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza City in June of last year, however, Sa’ad survived the attempt. 

Reports in Hebrew media on Wednesday evening said that the IDF is also investigating the possibility that Hamas spokesman, known by the pseudonym Abu Obeida, may have been in the tunnels with Mohammed Sinwar at the time of the attack. 

Reports out of Gaza say that Hamas has been instructing people in Gaza to avoid posting anything about the assassination attempt online, and to avoid speculating about possible targets, in order to minimize the intelligence available to Israel. 

So far, Hamas has not confirmed or denied the death of any officials or commanders from the strike, however, Israeli officials are optimistic that Sinwar was killed.