IDF reached 'end of the line' in fight against Hamas, prolonged conflict to bring diminishing returns, US officials say

Hostages, humanitarian situation, Palestinian state are significant concerns for US

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This article summarizes key points from a recent New York Times article, contrasting it with another recent article from Tablet Magazine. For a summary of that article, click here.

An article in The New York Times on Wednesday cited senior U.S. officials concluding that “Israel has achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza,” arguing that further military action is not likely to dismantle the Hamas terror group.

The U.S. officials acknowledged that Israel has significantly weakened Hamas but stated that it has not fully eliminated the group. They further stated that continuing military action risks more civilian casualties without achieving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise of “total victory.”

The officials acknowledged that Israel's military campaign in Gaza has inflicted substantial damage on Hamas, more than initially anticipated by U.S. analysts.

Israeli forces managed to disrupt Hamas operations, eliminating about 17,000 combatants, as well as capturing or eliminating half of the Qassam Brigades' leadership, including top figures like Mohammad Deif and Marwan Issa.

However, they argued that Hamas remains a significant threat and is unlikely to be completely eradicated by military means alone.

While Israel Defense Forces has freedom of movement across Gaza and has significantly disrupted supply lines, according to the article, Hamas has retreated into the extensive tunnel system and embedded itself within the civilian population.

One significant argument raised by the authors of the article is that the goal of retrieving the 115 remaining hostages cannot be accomplished solely through military operations. Diplomacy is essential for their return, they argued.

However, the authors acknowledged a discrepancy between the U.S. military leadership's assessment and that of the Israeli military.

IDF commanders continue to publicly emphasize their commitment to achieving all major war goals, including the return of the hostages.

The article noted that several prominent former IDF leaders have begun publicly doubting this assessment, and are aligned more closely with the U.S. stance.

The Biden administration has been actively pursuing negotiations for a ceasefire hostage release deal to address the situation, with high-level officials, including CIA Director William Burns and Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk, traveling to the region for talks.

Despite Israel's success in disrupting Hamas’ operations and seizing crucial areas, challenges persist due to Hamas’ use of tunnels and its ability to regroup. The IDF’s strategy has encountered difficulties in maintaining long-term control over seized territories.

While U.S. officials believe Israel has achieved a meaningful military victory, there is skepticism about the effectiveness of the IDF's tactics, which some in the U.S. have described as “Whack-a-Mole.” Israeli officials, like former IDF Gen. Yaakov Amidror, argue that more time and continued military pressure are needed to ensure long-term success.

Amidror suggests that Israel focus on high-intensity operations in Gaza for another two to three months, followed by prolonged intelligence-based raids to neutralize remaining threats. He warns that prematurely ending the conflict could allow Hamas to recover and regain strength.

American officials noted that while Israeli operations, particularly in Rafah, have disrupted Hamas’ supply routes and further isolated Gaza, this isolation has worsened the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The authors concluded that for the Western world, including the Biden administration, the biggest goal of the war is the return of the hostages and the humanitarian situation.

They assessed that a ceasefire hostage deal hinges on addressing the issues of the return of hostages and the future governance of Gaza with steps leading to a Palestinian state.

Israel's lack of a publicly articulated position regarding the post-conflict situation leads to uncertainty, however, as the future governance of Gaza after Hamas is a significant concern for all parties involved.