Out with the old Sinwar – in with the new? Brother of killed Hamas leader set to take over the terror group

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a house in Rafah on Oct. 18 brought his 7-year reign of terror over the Gaza Strip to a fittingly violent close.

While many Israeli security experts doubt any one person can successfully replace the charismatic, cunning, and ruthless leader, his brother Mohammed is set to take over the reins from his older brother and give it a try.

Ynet News reported that Mohammed Sinwar is not likely to become Hamas’ overall leader but could instead replace his brother as the leader of Hamas in Gaza. Despite this, some other rivals for the post remain alive.

Who is Mohammed Sinwar?

Mohammed Sinwar was born in Khan Younis in 1975, into a family that fled to Gaza from the Ashkelon area during Israel’s War of Independence in 1948.

After a basic education in Gaza’s UNRWA-run schools, he followed in the footsteps of his older brother Yahya and joined and served in the Hamas terrorist organization as a child and young man during the First Intifada that ended in 1993.

He was involved in the planning of several suicide bombing attacks that claimed dozens of Israeli lives during the '90s.

He spent nine months in Israeli jails, before being locked up by the Palestinian Authority (PA) in a Ramallah prison, from where he escaped in 2000.

Subsequently, the young Sinwar rose through the ranks of Hamas, and especially its military wing, the “Martyr Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades,” while his brother Yahya was still in an Israeli prison.

In 2005, he took over the Brigades’ Khan Younis regional command and became a well-known and respected member of its general staff, growing close to its legendary leader Mohammed Deif, and his deputy, Marwan Issa.

In subsequent years, all three were targeted numerous times by the Israeli security forces. According to media reports, Sinwar survived at least six assassination attempts, while Deif had survived seven. Deif and Issa were finally killed during the Gaza War.

Mohammed Sinwar has been living in the shadows for decades, continuously hiding and evading Israel’s intelligence services. He didn’t even attend the funeral of his father, who died in 2022.

As the Khan Younis commander, Sinwar was also intimately involved in kidnapping and hiding the IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, as well as in the years-long negotiations over his release in 2011, in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian terrorists – chief among them: His brother Yahya.

Mohammed Sinwar’s role in recent years

Next to his brother and Deif, Mohammed Sinwar is estimated to be among the chief planners of the Oct. 7 invasion and massacre.

In recent years, he was Hamas’ top commander in the southern part of the enclave, and served as its head for logistics and manpower, while surviving another Israeli assassination attempt during the Gaza War in May 2021.

By now a member of Hamas’ highest military council, he was personally responsible for the construction of the largest tunnel discovered by Israeli forces in Gaza, which approached the Erez border crossing from the Khan Younis area.

He also admitted to closely coordinating Hamas’ efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, according to the Foundation for Freedom of Democracies (FDD) – relations that will be important if he does, indeed, take over command of Hamas in Gaza.

Israel struck Sinwar’s private home during the current war, and security experts estimate that Mohammed led much of Hamas’ fighting on the ground while his brother Yahya was in hiding.

The IDF set a $300,000 bounty for information leading to his capture, one of the highest rewards offered for a Hamas commanders.

Will he take over – and if he does, what will change?

According to many estimates, Mohammed Sinwar is the most likely candidate to replace his brother – at least as the leader of Hamas’ Gaza branch.

The overall leadership is more likely to pass to one of the Hamas leaders based in Qatar.

The most prominent candidates are Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, who is known to have good relations with Iran, and Sinwar’s predecessor Khaled Meshaal, who has opposed the Iran-friendly course of the group in recent years.

While there aren't many other prominent leaders left within Gaza, Sinwar will have to come to terms with Hamas’ northern Gaza chief and veteran military commander, Izz al-Din al-Haddad.

If Sinwar does take over in Gaza, Hamas’ positions on the ceasefire and hostage negotiations aren’t likely to change.

Having been a close confidant of his brother, Sinwar is among those responsible for the terror group’s current course.

When al-Hayya confirmed Yahya Sinwar’s death, he stressed that Hamas’ negotiating position hadn’t changed and that it would continue to demand a full Israeli withdrawal and an end to the war in return for the hostages.

A senior Israeli source, speaking to Israel Hayom, said Mohammed “is no less radical than his brother and is an arch-terrorist like him.”

However, the source also acknowledged that Yahya’s death may bring new possibilities for rescuing the Israeli hostages who have been held in Gaza for more than a year.

The IDF’s division of Gaza into two parts likely means that Hamas no longer has an effective way to centrally command and control the units holding the remaining hostages, nor can it easily implement a ceasefire even if its leadership were to agree to it.

Even if Mohammed Sinwar doesn’t take over sole leadership of Hamas in Gaza, the group’s strategy won't likely change soon, as his brother Yahya has left an indelible mark on the group.

Israel can’t wait for the “right” leader to emerge and change the terror group’s course of action – it will be up to the IDF to continue using military force to change the situation according to Israel’s needs.