4 days before the Lebanon ceasefire deadline: Will the IDF complete its withdrawal?

With four days to go until the Jan. 26 deadline set for the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, it remains unclear whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will indeed pull out all of its forces in time.

According to reports by Lebanese and Israeli media, IDF representatives refused to commit to a timetable for the withdrawal at a meeting of the ceasefire enforcement mechanism in a-Naqoura this week.

The meeting of the committee, which includes representatives from Israel, Lebanon, the U.S. and France, was meant to facilitate the final steps for the Israeli withdrawal in the central and eastern sectors of southern Lebanon.

The Hezbollah-affiliated al-Akhbar newspaper cited informed sources saying that Israel seeks to extend the deadline by several days, and that the committee members asked to relay the demand to the political echelon in their respective countries before replying.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah shows no signs of intending to fulfill its side of the ceasefire deal.

Ali Fayyad, a Lebanese parliament member on behalf of Hezbollah, warned that they would “not stand idly by if Israel does not withdraw from the territories of southern Lebanon before Jan. 26.”

Despite the country’s new president Joseph Aoun declaring that weapons of non-state actors should be confiscated, another Hezbollah MP named Rami Abou Hamdane reiterated Tuesday that “the weapons of the resistance are here to stay.” This violates the terms of the ceasefire agreement, which is based on U.N. Resolution 1701 and includes a call to the disarmament of Hezbollah.

“As the Hebrew state [Israel] continues to threaten Lebanon, Hezbollah’s arsenal will remain,” Abou Hamdane affirmed. His comments followed a Saturday statement by Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who called on the Lebanese state and the international community “not to test the patience” of his group.

On the ground, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) continued its slow deployment across southern Lebanon this week. According to the Lebanese outlet L’Orient Le Jour, LAF troops had planned to deploy in the town of Tallouseh but stopped when it discovered three IDF tanks stationed at a nearby junction.

Senior Western diplomats told Ynet News the LAF has so far sent some 6,000 soldiers to southern Lebanon, a region over which it didn’t have any control prior to the war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah has a much larger, better equipped, and more experienced fighting force than the LAF.

The diplomats added that the LAF has so far carried out over 100 operations to “neutralize” Hezbollah infrastructure, including the destruction of rocket launchers, and buildings. Of the 100 operations, a third were said to have been initiated by the Lebanese army and the rest were carried out at the request of the ceasefire enforcement mechanism.

“We are not naive, the deadline is designed to preserve a sense of movement and keep all parties within the framework of the agreement. The IDF acts according to the decisions of the political echelon in Israel. We think they know what they need to do and we'll see where it goes, but it's hard to predict. We believe that the IDF should complete the withdrawal, but we need political will on both sides,” the diplomats said.

“The Lebanese army should do its part and continue to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure, and on the other hand, the IDF should help the Lebanese army and allow it to enter any territory that the IDF vacates. It's a parallel process that needs to be done.”

The diplomats explained the deadline itself isn’t critical but is meant to provide a sense of urgency, possibly indicating that Israel’s request for an extension of several days could be approved.