Middle East on edge: Trump pushes billion-dollar arms deals that could spark a regional arms race

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, and his Middle Eastern itinerary also includes stops in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The purpose of Trump’s visit is reportedly to strengthen Washington’s ties with the three affluent Arab states while securing vast business deals for U.S. defense companies.

However, while Trump advocates for peace in the Middle East, his visit could potentially trigger an historic regional arms race in this highly volatile region. The Trump-led delegation includes Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, Sikorsky CEO Paul Lemmo and leaders of other top American defense companies. 

Saudi Arabia has indicated interest in acquiring some 200 next-generation American-made F-15EX jets to replace older models in its air force fleet. In addition, the Saudis also want to buy various offensive and defensive missile systems, combat helicopters, transport helicopters and Hercules transport planes.

Qatar and the UAE are also expected to sign military and commercial deals with American companies. In addition to the military deals with the three Gulf states, Saudi Arabia is expected to sign civilian contracts with U.S. companies worth between $600 billion and $1 trillion. 

Some pundits fear that he dramatic upgrading of Saudi Arabia’s military inventory will escalate an unprecedented arms race in the Middle East. In the next few weeks months, Israel is expected to sign the purchase of at least one squadron or 25 F-15EX fighter jets. Each plane costs $100 million and the deal will cost the Jewish state some $2.5 billion.

Due to the Israeli Air Force’s unique technical requirements, the jets for Israel are more expensive than those aircraft earmarked for other Middle Eastern air forces. Other Middle Eastern countries that seek to acquire F-15EX fighter jets include Egypt, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait. 

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza are also expected to trigger more arms races in the Middle East and beyond. 

In December 2024, Egypt reportedly secured a $5 billion arms deal with the United States. While Egypt has a formal peace agreement with Israel, relations between Cairo and Jerusalem are increasingly tense amid the ongoing Hamas-initiated Gaza war. 

In early 2025, Israels new ambassador to Washington Dr. Yechiel Leiter articulated concerns about the Egyptian military buildup. Leiter argued that Egypt is "in very serious violation of our peace agreement in the Sinai. This is an issue that is going to come to the fore because it’s not tolerable.” 

Meanwhile, Turkey, a NATO member-state with close ties to the terrorist organization Hamas, seeks to acquire advanced American-made F-35 fighter jets. 

Washington has at the same time signaled that it seeks to maintain Israel’s military qualitative edge in the Middle East region. Large military deals with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, would likely compel the Jewish state to increase its already considerable military spending. 

Earlier this month, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a report that revealed a surge in global defense spending amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and beyond. 

“Over 100 countries around the world raised their military spending in 2024. As governments increasingly prioritize military security, often at the expense of other budget areas, the economic and social trade-offs could have significant effects on societies for years to come,” the SIPRI researcher Xiao Liang stated. 

In 2024, military expenditures in the Middle East increased by 15% compared to 2023 and reached around $243 billion. Israel’s defense spending reached $46.5 billion in 2024, which constitutes an increase by 65% compared to 2023. The dramatic rise in Israeli military spending is attributed to the ongoing war with the Iranian regime and its terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.