Polls show Gantz continues to lead Netanyahu in 'suitability for prime minister'

With the judicial reform legislation still on hold, several polls in Israeli news media show that former Defense Minister Benny Gantz is the preferred choice for prime minister against Benjamin Netanyahu.

Conducted in cooperation with different Israeli news sites, the polls show a clear trend since March, with Gantz’s National Unity party gaining support from the Israeli public.

While the polls were conducted by different organizations, the trend across the different surveys reveals that if new elections were to be held at the present time, Gantz’s party would gain more seats, primarily from Netanyahu's Likud party and the opposition, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party.

In fact, each of the polls consistently showed that the current coalition would be unable to form a government if there were to be new elections. However, the firms conducting the poll disagree on how large of a loss the coalition would sustain.

Israel's Kan 11 news poll shows the current coalition would be reduced to 51 seats, while the Channel 13 news poll predicts only 49 seats for the coalition.

The Channel 14 news poll, whose pre-election survey was closest to the actual polling results in the last election, predicted 58 seats for the coalition. This represents an increase, however, compared to surveys conducted by the same organization that estimated only 55 seats for the coalition, following Netanyahu's announcement that the judicial reform legislation would be paused to allow for compromise dialogue.

The various polls also revealed a drop in support for the Yesh Atid party, with results across the polls showing it would only receive 17 or 18 seats, as opposed to 20 seats at the beginning of April.

The polls are inconsistent regarding Netanyahu’s Likud party. According to the Kan 11 news survey, Likud would receive 25 seats, however, the Channel 14 poll showed Likud would remain the largest party, with 31 seats.

Most polls asked respondents to rate several candidates based on suitability for the position of prime minister, nearly all of which resulted in Benny Gantz as the top choice.

When placed against Gantz, Netanyahu fared poorly, with as high as 40% of respondents in some polls saying Gantz is more suitable for the role of prime minister.

The Channel 12 news poll showed 37% of respondents favored Gantz over Netanyahu, as prime minister, while the Channel 13 news survey showed results that 49% favored Gantz.

Netanyahu did rank higher than Gantz in one poll, albeit with close scores; 42% for Netanyahu vs. 38% for Gantz. However, these numbers reflect the choice of respondents when asked to choose between Netanyahu, Gantz and Lapid. When Netanyahu was compared only to Gantz, the respondents favored Gantz by 48% as compared to Netanyahu’s 42%.

While Israel is not expected to hold elections anytime soon, if it fails to pass the state budget by the end of May, it could bring down the government and send Israel to yet another round of elections.