Mysterious pager explosions in Lebanon: Major turning point or another milestone in war of attrition against Hezbollah?
Experts disagree on immediate results, but psychological impact is enormous
On Tuesday afternoon, reports started spreading that something unusual was happening in the state of Lebanon.
Initial reports spoke of some dozen people in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, Hezbollah’s central stronghold, who all suddenly and simultaneously seemed to have suffered wounds on their hands.
Shortly after, reports from across the country started flooding social media. Across the land of cedars, thousands of young men had reached for their pagers which began beeping at around the same time, before they exploded in their hands.
According to the latest reports from Lebanese authorities, some 3,000 people were wounded, including 300 who are in critical condition. Hundreds more Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives in Lebanon were reportedly wounded, as well.
Hezbollah confirmed that the attack had targeted its operatives, calling it the largest security breach the terror group has suffered yet.
Unconfirmed reports say around 500 people, including the ambassador of the Iranian regime in Lebanon, lost their eyesight in the series of explosions.
So far, no state actor has taken responsibility for the operation, but most immediately suspected Israel’s intelligence service Mossad to be responsible for the sophisticated attack.
“Only a state can carry out such an impressive and sophisticated operation, and who else apart from Israel has the motivation and ability to do it? So, the assumption is that it was Israel,” Prof. Eyal Zisser, an expert for Lebanon and Syria, told ALL ISRAEL NEWS.
The context of the incident is notable. As the fighting in Gaza has dwindled, and tensions with Hezbollah reached a boiling point with Israel’s extensive pre-emptive strike around three weeks ago, the Israeli Cabinet on Monday officially declared the removal of the danger posed by Hezbollah one of the goals of the war.
After this declaration, Israel’s top political and security leadership spent the next day in continuous discussions, described by media reports as “dramatic,” while deliberating about a potential ground offensive to push back the Hezbollah terrorists who have been terrorizing northern Israel for 11 months.
When reports of the beeper explosions began to spread, many thought this to be the opening salvo of the Israeli offensive, which would exploit the mayhem caused by the attack to overrun Hezbollah's defenses.
Since this didn’t happen, the final intent of the surprise operation remains unknown at this time.
The timing of the attack, coinciding with the Israeli security meetings, indicated a strategic, calculated move by Israel.
This is the perspective of Faisal al-Qassem, a Syrian Druze journalist writing for Al Jazeera, who called it a pre-emptive strike on par with Israel's opening blow to the Six-Day War.
“If Hezbollah enters the war now, its wounded will not find even one free bed in the hospitals in Lebanon because the hospitals are now bursting with wounded. Even worse, Hezbollah has lost a means of security and military communication. Checkmate,” al-Qassem wrote.
Speaking to ALL ISRAEL NEWS, Zisser said he thought the attack was meant to seize an opening to hit Hezbollah, as part of the ongoing “long war of attrition.”
“In the short run, this is a major blow, but in the longer run, this doesn’t change the bigger picture dramatically. Many of the warriors were wounded and there is chaos, but in a few days, they will recover – this is not an army, this is an organization that has warriors – so no dramatic change in the long run,” Zisser explained.
However, a report by al-Monitor suggested that the attack was triggered earlier than planned after some Hezbollah operatives had gotten suspicious about the shipment of pagers, which was acquired specifically to raise the security level and hamper Israeli efforts to hack their communications.
Whatever end goal the unknown perpetrators had in mind – the brilliant, James Bond-esque operation has put the ball back in Hezbollah’s court.
Israel has raised its alert levels and reinforced its troops on the border with the elite 98th Commando Division and is awaiting Hezbollah’s response.
If the response is on par with its “usual” attacks, Israel will have won the exchange while deeply humiliating Hezbollah, no small feat in the Middle East.
If Hezbollah reacts strongly, this might provide Israel with the argument it needs to convince the Biden administration to drop its resistance to an Israeli offensive in Lebanon.
For the moment, what remains is the psychological impact of the unprecedented attack.
“The sense of penetration is a key achievement required in influence operations and disrupts the enemy’s ability to use force,” commented Moshe Gutman, senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security.
He added: “The genius attack on Hezbollah last night will be enshrined in the pantheon as an example of an attack on a command-and-control chain and communication channels, but no less than that, as an example of an ‘influence’ operation - psychological warfare that results in striking fear in the enemy’s heart.”
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Hanan Lischinsky has a Master’s degree in Middle East & Israel studies from Heidelberg University in Germany, where he spent part of his childhood and youth. He finished High School in Jerusalem and served in the IDF’s Intelligence Corps. Hanan and his wife live near Jerusalem, and he joined ALL ISRAEL NEWS in August 2023.
