Momentum shifting to Trump – US presidential race too close to call, but experts say they detect dynamic change away from Harris, towards Trump

JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – The American presidential race is a dead heat.

At this point, it's impossible to predict who will win.

But as the race enters its final week, Donald J. Trump appears to have the initiative.

On Saturday, for example, Trump shocked reporters at a campaign rally in Michigan, a key battleground state, by picking up the endorsement of Bill Bazzi, the Muslim mayor of Dearborn Heights, who said that only Trump can re-establish peace in the Middle East. 

"I support and endorse President Trump, because we are going to stop the wars," Bazzi said. "We are going to make the United States safe again. Also we are going to make the world safe."

Nearly two dozen other Arab and Muslim leaders and clerics also endorsed Trump.

Despite the fact that Trump is unashamedly pro-Israel, he also brokered four Arab-Israeli peace deals known as the Abraham Accords.

The Michigan leaders also said they feel Trump will do a vastly better job than his rival in reviving the U.S. economy and fighting urban crime.

Dearborn is a Democratic Party stronghold and is in a state Democrats must win to hold the White House. 

NEW POLL SAYS TRUMP MORE LIKELY TO ESTABLISH PEACE IN MIDDLE EAST

A new Wall Street Journal poll revealed that Americans overwhelmingly believe Trump will be more effective in dealing with wars in the Middle East and re-establishing peace in the region.

Nearly half of Americans – 49% – now say that Trump "is best able to handle Israel's war with Hamas and Hezbollah."

Only 34% believe Harris would "be best able" to re-establish peace, while 3% said both and 10% said neither.

Interestingly enough, 48% of Americans also told Wall Street Journal pollsters that Trump would be best at ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, while only 44% said they thought Harris would be better.

In recent weeks, Trump has also picked up key endorsements from two major Democrats – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who actually publicly switched her party registration last week to become a Republican.

Both Kennedy and Gabbard have cited Trump's experience as a "peacemaker" and someone who will end the "endless wars" in the Middle East as one of their reasons for backing him and not Harris.

NATIONAL POLLS SHOW A "DEAD HEAT" BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP

People throughout the Middle East and North Africa – Israelis, Arabs, and increasingly Iranians – are watching the U.S. presidential race with rapidly growing interest.

No one knows how it will turn out but many in the Epicenter region believe the outcome will significantly impact U.S. policy in the Middle East.

The Real Clear Politics average of all credible national polls in recent days now puts the former president over Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.1 points.

Trump is at 48.5%, while Harris is at 48.4%.

True, that means the race is neck and neck – but it represents a dramatic dynamic change from just last month when the RCP average had Harris leading nationally by 2 points.

THE DYNAMIC APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD TRUMP

Trump is actually leading nationally by 3 points in the latest Wall Street Journal poll released on Saturday.

That represents a 4-point shift from last month when Harris was leading Trump by one point.

"The race is close but it's shifted towards Trump," said Mark Halperin, a Jewish political analyst and mainstream media commentator, on Sunday.

Halperin is no conservative and he's certainly no MAGA ("Make America Great Again") Republican.

After serving as political director for ABC News for many years, Halperin was a political analyst on MSNBC. In 2024, he launched an interactive media platform called 2WAY, where he runs daily live conference calls and analyzes the latest polls and insightful tidbits he's picked up from campaign strategists across the nation.

"No one should say this race is over – no one," says Halperin. "But you can't ignore what we're seeing in the data. You can't ignore what we're seeing in body language."

Top operatives on both sides are feeling anxious, Halperin said, but senior Trump operatives and Congressional Republicans feel increasingly encouraged by evidence of a momentum shift in recent weeks.

What's more, Halperin said that "down ballot" Democrats – not VP Harris or Gov. Tim Walz but those running for the House and Senate – are becoming increasingly nervous.

In the closing days of the race, some Democratic candidates are now "running separate from Kamala Harris," either promoting ads that support Trump on various positions or choosing not to campaign with Harris or show her in their TV ads.

This, Halperin said, "is becoming an increasing problem for Democrats."

NBC NEWS ANALYST SAYS RACE IS SHIFTING TOWARD TRUMP

Steve Kornacki is a national political correspondent for NBC News. 

He is certainly not a conservative or MAGA Republican either. 

But Kornacki sees the same momentum shift that Halperin does.

"One thing we have noticed in the past couple days, this is not all of the polls that are out there now, but we have seen a number – four in the last four days – that have shown very small, but in the context of this close race, potentially meaningful movement in Trump's direction," Kornacki said on "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

"I don't want to overstate it but at the same time, it's hard to ignore these four polls," he said.

"The CNBC poll that came out the other day has Trump ahead by two. The Wall Street Journal poll [has] Trump ahead by three. These are national numbers. Siena and the New York Times [has] a tied race. CNN [shows] a tied race."

"The significance here is broader movement, again, we're seeing in Trump's direction," Kornacki added. 

"What is happening nationally?" Kornacki asked.

"Well, we can show you from the CNBC poll – they picked up on something that our own NBC poll was suggesting recently, and that is a shift in the image of Kamala Harris."

Kornacki noted that only 42% of Americans now say they view Harris positively.

By contrast, 48% say they see Harris negatively.

That's a major shift, said Kornacki, noting that a month ago, "Harris had a higher positive [rating] than negative."

"That said," he added, "tons of uncertainty and volatility remain in this race" and it's impossible to predict who will win.

ON KEY ISSUES AMERICANS CARE ABOUT, HARRIS TRAILS BADLY

The Wall Street Journal poll found that on many key issues of great importance to Americans right now, Trump is leading Harris.

On stopping illegal immigration through Mexico, for example, 53% say Trump would do better, while only 38% say Harris.

On strengthening the U.S. economy, 53% of Americans favor Trump, while only 41% support Harris.

On battling crime, Harris is also trailing – only 41% said she would do better, while 50% say Trump would.

Only on the issue of protecting Social Security, Medicare and abortion did the poll find Americans opting for Harris.