Lebanese PM hopes for ceasefire ‘within days,’ leaked deal outline envisions IDF pulling out within 7 days

Amid a concerted push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that is led by the U.S., Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati expressed great hope about its chances for success as U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is en route to Israel to finalize a deal.

On Wednesday, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan News published a leaked draft outline of the ceasefire deal. According to the document, the ceasefire will begin with a 60-day adjustment period.

Israeli troops would be withdrawn within the first week and be replaced by some 10,000 troops of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with the cooperation of the UNIFIL peacekeeping force.

חשיפה בכאן 11: זוהי טיוטת ההסכם המלא שמתגבש בין ישראל ללבנון. ההסכם נוסח ע״י המתווך האמריקני עמוס הוכשטיין, והונח על שולחנה של ישראל. בכירים ישראלים אומרים שהדרג המדיני מרוצה מהטיוטה וסיכוייו גבוהים. הנה הטיוטה המלאה >>>> pic.twitter.com/39sZianq8m

— Suleiman Maswadeh סולימאן מסוודה (@SuleimanMas1) October 30, 2024

Meanwhile, the LAF would also dismantle and confiscate all non-state military infrastructure, meaning the remaining Hezbollah infrastructure, in southern Lebanon.

At the end of the initial 60-day period, the U.S. will mediate indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on how to fully implement U.N. Resolution 1701 and resolve the outstanding border disputes.

To fulfill Israeli demands of a robust enforcing mechanism, the agreement states that Israel will be able to carry out intelligence flights, if they are invisible to the naked eye and do not break the sound barrier.

If it identifies violations of the agreement, Israel “may choose to act against violations” and be allowed to respond to threats emanating from Lebanese territory.

For example, if the other parties fail to prevent Hezbollah weapons shipments or renewed manufacturing, after coordination with the U.S., Israel will be within its rights to strike the targets.

To monitor the agreement, the U.S. will lead a newly created “International Monitoring and Enforcement Mechanism” (IMEM) in which Italy, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, UNIFIL and regional countries will participate.

Speaking with Lebanon’s Al Jadeed television, Mikati said he was now very optimistic after a phone call with Hochstein.

“During his call with me, [Hochstein] suggested to me that we could reach an agreement before the end of the month and before Nov. 5th,” Mikati said.

“We are doing everything we can, and we should remain optimistic that in the coming hours or days, we will have a ceasefire,” he added.

White House national security spokesman Sean Savett declined to comment on the draft leak, only saying that “There are many reports and drafts circulating. They do not reflect the current state of negotiations.”

Meanwhile, the optimism was less pronounced among the two most relevant parties in the negotiation, these being Israel and Hezbollah.

The IDF’s Northern Command reportedly thinks that its military goals in southern Lebanon have now been reached and is waiting for instructions from the political leadership on how to proceed.

Army Radio cited a political source who “cooled the enthusiasm” surrounding the negotiations.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed great skepticism in internal discussions about the value of agreements on paper. The Prime Minister said that what is really important is the ability to physically remove Hezbollah from the northern border and Israel's uncompromising and aggressive enforcement against Hezbollah's terrorist actions,” according to the report.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem sounded a militant note in his first official speech, without fully closing the door on a possible agreement.

Hezbollah will “continue the fight and will not beg for a cease-fire. If the Israelis want to stop, it will be on our terms, and negotiations have not yet yielded results,” said Qassem.