IRGC founder says Iran incapable of fighting protracted war with Israel
Israel has been on high alert for the past three weeks after Iran and its terrorist proxy Hezbollah vowed to launch a “revenge” attack for the elimination of the top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shrukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
While much of the Middle East and the international community fear a potential full-scale regional war, founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohsen Sazegara, believes that “Iran is not in a position to fight Israel.”
Sazegara, who fled from Iran in 2003 and currently resides in the United States, said the Iranian regime is humiliated by Haniyeh's assassination in what should have been a safe site in Tehran.
“What Israel did, I mean the alleged assassination of [Hamas Chief] Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places, was a humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran,” Sazegara said in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post. “This has created a problem for Khamenei among his main powerbase – the intelligence services.”
The IRGC, which is listed as a terrorist entity by the United States government, was established in 1979 to protect the ayatollah regime and advance the Islamic Revolution. The IRGC eventually became a competing military force to the conventional Iranian army and is now considered the ayatollah regime’s elite force.
Sazegara emphasized the vast gap between the ayatollah regime’s ideology and its limited military capabilities compared to the State of Israel.
“[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is not in a position to fight Israel,” he said.
“They don’t have any strategic balance. They can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach Israel in six to eight minutes. 'But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t defend the country, especially air defense,' the Iranian commanders told Khamenei, according to Sazegara.
“They emphasized that ‘even if we launch an attack, we should immediately consider a ceasefire with international mediators,’” he added.
In early August, Washington increased its military presence in the Middle East in an effort to deter Iran and Hezbollah from launching an attack on the Jewish state. However, Iran reportedly felt it needed a face-saving response to the Haniyeh assassination, which it blames Israel for.
Israel has so far, neither confirmed or denied its involvement in the Hamas leader's death.
At the same time, Tehran reportedly fears a powerful Israeli counterattack. Sazegara believes Iran has secretly asked Washington to restrain Israel.
“As far as I know, Iran, behind the scenes, negotiated with the US and the Biden administration and asked them to talk to Israel, stating that Iran would attack somewhere in Israel, and promise nobody will be killed, but Israel should not retaliate,” he assessed.
“Iran asked the US to put pressure on Israel not to retaliate enough to escalate. But this time, the US did not agree and told them that we can’t prevent Israel,” Sazegara added.
He argued that the Iranian regime secretly hopes to receive an off-ramp, such as a potential Hamas-Israel Gaza deal.
“And if these [Israel-Hamas] negotiations go nowhere and there is no ceasefire, I don’t know what Khamenei will do, but I guess that he would consider using Iran’s proxy groups to retaliate against Israel,” Sazegara concluded.
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The All Israel News Staff is a team of journalists in Israel.
