Despite Washington’s diplomatic offensive, US lowers expectations of Saudi-Israel normalization

The Biden administration is reportedly pessimistic concerning the prospects of a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement in the near future, The New York Times reported on Sunday. Washington’s assessment comes amid intensified diplomatic efforts to bridge the two sides.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to strengthening and expanding the historic Arab-Israeli Abraham Accords

“We are collaborating with countries in the region to widen and deepen the normalization of relations with Israel,” Blinken told his Arab hosts in Riyadh, during his trip with a U.S. delegation, led by U.S. Middle East Envoy Brett McGurk, that recently visited the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state currently do not have diplomatic relations. However, Saudi Arabia played an instrumental role in implementing the Abraham Accords. In addition, the Saudis opened their airspace to Israeli commercial flights.

Any potential Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement is ultimately linked to Saudi-American ties, which are currently strained due to the Biden administration’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan revealed some time ago that Washington views a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement as an important American national security interest. However, the chance of a Saudi-Israeli diplomatic breakthrough is currently less than 50%, according to the Times report, which quotes several U.S. officials.

So why is Washington continuing its diplomatic efforts when the prospects for diplomatic progress on the Saudi-Israeli front are reportedly considered slim?

Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, believes Saudi-Israel normalization is important for U.S. President Joe Biden.

“Biden has decided to go for it, and everyone in the administration now understands that the president wants this,” Indyk told The Times of Israel. “When you’re talking about Middle East peace, it takes three to tango,” he added.

Indyk stressed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very interested in normalizing diplomatic relations with the Saudis.

“Bibi wants this so badly he can taste it,” said the former U.S. top envoy to Israel. However, Saudi-Israeli peace likely depends on political progress between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Traditional Middle Eastern diplomatic efforts have typically indicated that a wider Arab-Israeli regional peace would only be possible after a final peace agreement between the Jewish state and the Palestinian Authority.

By contrast, Netanyahu has insisted that regional Arab-Israeli peace could eventually facilitate a peace agreement between Israel and the PA. In 2020, the Abraham Accords succeeded in normalizing ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

However, a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization deal faces numerous hurdles. Unlike, for example, Morocco or the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is a regional power that is the custodian of the two holiest Islamic cities – Mecca and Medina. The Saudis are, therefore, carefully listening to the sentiments of the Arab world before making any dramatic diplomatic deals with the Jewish state.

Addressing the Arab League Summit in April, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, claimed that the “Palestinian issue” remained at the top of Arab diplomatic priorities.

“We will not delay in providing assistance to the Palestinian people in recovering their lands, restoring their legitimate rights and establishing an independent state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital,” said MBS.

“The Palestinian issue was and remains the central issue for Arab countries, and it is at the top of the kingdom’s priorities,” the Saudi crown prince added.

While MBS may secretly seek technological and scientific Saudi-Israeli cooperation, he needs to balance this with the prevailing view that Saudi Arabia is at least officially backing a two-state solution in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

In addition, the Saudis are reportedly seeking security guarantees from Washington before agreeing to a potential normalization agreement with Israel. The Saudis who are increasingly skeptical of Washington’s commitment to its traditional Arab allies, are hedging their bets with closer diplomatic and commercial ties with America’s greatest rival China. In addition, the Saudis recently restored diplomatic relations with their regional rival Iran.