Crisis in the coalition? Ultra-Orthodox Shas leader Deri gives ultimatum to pass acceptable IDF Draft Law in 2 months

Pressure by ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition over the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Draft Law is increasing. On Tuesday evening Shas party leader Aryeh Deri said that if the coalition fails to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service within two months, the government will collapse. 

In an interview with the ultra-Orthodox radio station Kol Barama, Deri said: "The heads of the coalition and the prime minister are determined to regulate the status of Torah students. They have two months to sort it out – there's a test here. If it is not settled, then we will go to elections.” 

Deri is likely referring to the end of March deadline for approving the government’s budget. If that budget fails to pass due to a lack of votes, the government will fall, and new elections will be scheduled. 

On Tuesday, ultra-Orthodox extremists demonstrated outside the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, where a conference was held honoring the graduates of Netzah Yehuda ultra-Orthodox battalion and other ultra-Orthodox tracks in the IDF. 

Israel police used a stun grenade and “skunk water" to disperse the demonstrators. Two demonstrators were arrested, while ten were lightly wounded during the scuffles, including three policemen. 

The IDF announced last week that it had begun criminal proceedings against ultra-Orthodox candidates for military service who did not report for enlistment. According to the army's announcement: "A non-commissioned officer who did not report for his enlistment in accordance with the provisions of the order he received, will be considered to be committing the offense of absence from service without permission, and is expected to face criminal sanctions.” 

Meanwhile, on Wednesday morning, Shas responded to comments made by Religious Zionism head and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who accused the ultra-Orthodox parties of supporting the continuation of the hostage release ceasefire deal in order to gain support for the IDF Draft Law. 

Religious Zionism has threatened to leave the coalition if Netanyahu approves negotiations for phase two of the deal, which would entail agreeing to end the war without defeating and fully destroying Hamas, but would result in the release of the remaining hostages. 

Wednesday morning, Shas Knesset Member Erez Malul told Kan Reshet Bet that Deri’s statement was not a threat, but a statement of reality. 

“In the case of the Draft Law, the government does not have a majority,” Malul said. “United Torah Judaism [another ultra-Orthodox party in the coalition] will not vote in favor of the budget, Ben Gvir is in opposition. How will it pass? It’s not a threat, it’s an ultimatum.” 

The IDF Draft Law has been a controversial issue even within the coalition, as many coalition members support equal draft for all Jewish citizens. The ultra-Orthodox parties demanded the passage of a draft exemption law as part of the conditions for joining the coalition government. 

Last year, United Torah Judaism threatened to leave the coalition if the IDF Draft Law exempting ultra-Orthodox yeshivah students was not passed, although they later recanted the threat.

While several opposition parties, including the Yes Atid party of Yair Lapid and the National Unity party of Benny Gantz, have offered to support Netanyahu in a decision to extend the ceasefire deal, they also support increasing ultra-Orthodox enlistment. Therefore, the draft issue could lead to a collapse of the coalition if a solution is not found before the end of March.