Will Jordan turn on Israel?

One of the first memories I clearly remember, during my early days of Aliyah (immigration to Israel), was the sight of every Israeli excitedly rushing out of their house to spot the private plane of King Hussein, the then king of Jordan. Beloved by everyone, it was almost as if he was on equal footing with Israel’s prime minister. 

The admiration, undoubtedly, came from his heartfelt commitment to maintaining peaceful relations with the Jewish state. In fact, when he died, in 1999, it was said that Israelis mourned his passing even more than Palestinians did. “A close confidant of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, the king was only one of three Arab leaders to sign a formal peace agreement with Israel, so Jordan, under Hussein, presented no military threat to Israel but served as a strategic buffer between Israel and Iraq.”

King Abdullah, Hussein’s son, who became the successor of the Hashemite Kingdom in 1999 has, on the one hand, said that “he recognizes Israel as a vital regional ally,” but, on the other hand, “King Abdullah did little to improve relations when in 2018 he declined to renew the lease of two border zones in the Aravah Valley for farming use by Israelis, after the 25-year lease provision in the l994.”

Yet, when push came to shove, and Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles, Jordan came through for Israel when, “the kingdom granted Israeli aircraft full operational freedom in Jordanian airspace,” Once Iranian UAVS entered Jordanian airspace, they were “targeted by Israeli Air Force jets and sophisticated electronic equipment.” Additionally, “Jordanian aircraft flew from their bases to intercept the Iranian drones making their way to Israeli territory.”

While all of this has been a very positive development between the two countries, there is now a looming threat that could change everything. Just this past Wednesday, elections were held in Jordan, resulting in the Islamic Action Front (IAF), a political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, having received over 500,000 votes, subsequently winning 31 out of 138 seats in the House of Representatives. This is a huge achievement from 2020 when they only were only able to garner 10 seats. Consequently, up until this moment, they have considered themselves to be the opposition party. 

If the group Muslim Brotherhood sounds familiar, it’s because Mosab Hassan Yousef, better known as Son of Hamas has, in many of his YouTube clips, stated that Muslim Brotherhood is Hamas and Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood. He claims there is no distinction between them as they are one and the same. Hamas, founded in 1987, is, indeed, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Since they are opposed to any peace process with Israel, it remains to be seen how they would be able to work in cooperation with the King who has come to the assistance of Israel in recent days. “Considered a taboo in the kingdom, the Muslim Brotherhood has been careful to point their criticism mainly at the Jordan government rather than at the Hashemite family.”

But now that they have been able to secure a place of more prominence, how will the increased influence of the Muslim Brotherhood impact our closest neighbor to the east?

There is little doubt that this latest development must be worrisome to the King who has to understand that this extreme group could definitely threaten his reign. According to the online news site, ArabExpert, “Hamas has managed to influence public opinion in Jordan, leading to large-scale demonstrations in support of its military wing and the broader idea of ‘Palestine from the river to the sea.’”

This is not only concerning for the king but also for Israel, which does need yet another front to battle. What is clear is that Iran, coupled with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, would likely work together to unseat King Abdullah, since he does not lean towards or share their extremist views. Knowing that, it’s why “senior Hamas figures have sought to incite Jordanians to protest against King Abdullah, calling for the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador and the suspension of the peace agreement with Israel.” 

It also accounts for the reason that Hamas leaders are not welcome in Jordan. The last thing the King wants is a repeat of what took place during the reign of his father, in 1970, when a PLO uprising, better known as “Black September,” attempted to overthrow King Hussein’s rule, causing the monarch to lead an offensive which resulted in the killing of between 10,000 to 25,000. 

Consequently, there has been a very tight grip on the security situation in Jordan, where its intelligence agents have “arrested several Muslim Brotherhood operatives and uncovered weapons caches, allegedly smuggled from Iran, intended for use in attacks.”

Now, King Abdullah will have to clamp down on the public campaign which will surely be mounted to win over the hearts and minds of Jordanians to support a more extremist and radical ideology. The peaceful protests, which have been permitted up until now, could so easily become violent and widespread, causing them to come to an immediate halt, similar to events that happened in Egypt when President el-Sisi also recently was forced to put an end to the unrest which resulted in the Israel-Gaza war.

None of these events bode well for either Jordan’s king or Israel, her neighbor to the west, because if there is increased and unrelenting pressure to oust the Israeli ambassador from Jordan, how long will it be before all of this morphs into a serious uprising of the people, instigated by the IAF, who will push to join forces with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran against Israel?

But in order to succeed, they would first have to get rid of King Abdullah, something which could culminate in a huge internal power struggle for Jordan. Keeping the status quo is definitely in the best interest of Israel, who might be called upon, at some point, to aid those efforts in whatever way possible. For now, however, the king will have to do his best to prevent a situation that has the possibility of igniting his country into a bloody revolution, threatening Israel.

As you can see, there is never a dull moment in the everyday events which, unfortunately, are part and parcel of the unpredictable region known as the Middle East!