Return of Palestinians to northern Gaza and move to Phase 2 of ceasefire raise security challenges for Israel

The continuation of the hostage release ceasefire agreement, which led to the return of thousands of Palestinians evacuees to the northern Gaza Strip this week, is raising security concerns for Israeli leaders. 

The return of several hundred thousand Palestinian evacuees to the northern Gaza Strip introduces a new set of security challenges for Israel while reshaping the situation on the ground regarding the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) ability to resume the fight against Hamas. 

As part of the hostage release ceasefire deal, the IDF withdrew from parts of the Gaza Strip, including posts on the Netzarim Corridor which had been used to prevent Gaza residents from returning north while the IDF carried out operations  against Hamas in neighborhoods like Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya. 

The ceasefire deal allows for the return of residents to those northern Gaza communities.

After the IDF withdrew from their posts, a joint security operation involving Egyptian and U.S. security firms is inspecting vehicles returning north to help prevent the transfer of weapons to the northern Strip. 

An immediate security challenge arises from the return of residents, which is the potential for Hamas to regain control and influence in the region. The densely populated northern Gaza could serve as a shield for Hamas attempts to reassert control while also complicating future Israeli military operations due to the increased civilian presence. Hamas has historically used civilians as human shields. 

With the return of residents, Hamas might find it easier to recruit new members and re-establish its governance and military structures. Reports from social media suggest that Hamas has already regained control in parts of northern Gaza, and IDF reports indicate the group is attempting to smuggle weapons back into the northern Strip. 

Among Israeli critics of the ceasefire concessions, there are differences of opinions. 

Dr. Harel Chorev of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University argues that the population is “reversible”, saying, “If there will be an operational need, the population can be moved again.” 

He argues that Israel could again instruct the Palestinian population to evacuate. 

Brig. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Nuriel, former director of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, argues that Israel’s options will be limited after allowing the population to return. 

“Any future evacuation will likely be for a much more limited time period and not see residents heading all the way to southern Gaza,” Nuriel said. “It will also limit Israel’s ability to use firepower and undertake ground operations during the presence of a civilian population. The simple rules of engagement will become much more complicated.” 

Following the decision to move large parts of the Gaza population to al-Muwasi Humanitarian zone, the IDF seemed to feel greater operational freedom in fighting Hamas, including the destruction of a large amount of residential buildings that had been rigged with IED traps by Hamas.

The U.N. estimates around 90% of residential buildings were destroyed and about 70% of all structures were destroyed or damaged beyond use. 

The return of the evacuees to northern Gaza affects Israel's future operations. The presence of a large number of civilians places operational constraints, especially on the IDF’s freedom to maneuver. 

The increased civilian presence also makes gathering accurate intelligence on Hamas's movements more challenging. At the same time, Hamas is likely to use the cover of the civilian presence to recruit new fighters, lay more traps for IDF forces, and possibly reconstruct tunnels. 

“There is no doubt that Hamas will take advantage of this time to reconstruct tunnels and train new recruits,” Chorev said. 

Brig. Gen. Nuriel agreed that despite the damage caused, the IDF will face challenges if it needs to restart the military campaign against Hamas due to a breakdown of the ceasefire. 

“The area does not look like what it used to, this is clear,” Nuriel said. “But the operational infrastructure that the army will face means it will essentially be starting from scratch, and this is a significant challenge.” 

Even if the ceasefire holds, Israel might need to maintain a more permanent military presence in the Strip. 

In recent days, the IDF has begun establishing new outposts along the perimeter of the Gaza Strip to create a buffer zone. The creation of these outposts is happening in conjunction with the withdrawal of units from parts of the Netzarim Corridor and the northern neighborhoods. 

The buffer zone is meant to prevent Palestinians from approaching the border fence and adds an additional layer of security to the Israeli communities in the Gaza Envelope. 

Prof. Uzi Rabi, a senior researcher at the Dayan Center told Radio 103FM that the ceasefire creates conditions that will likely prevent Israel from returning to military action against Hamas in the near future. 

“There is definitely a price that Israel is paying for October 7 and the return of the hostages,” Rabi said. 

Rabi claims that Hamas is cooperating with the ceasefire in an attempt to return to normalcy. 

“What interests Hamas is that Israel will not fight it again in the near future because it needs to rehabilitate itself, and when a million Gazans return to the northern Gaza Strip, the war will probably not be renewed,” he stated. 

Rabi also said that Hamas discovered how to use the hostages against Israel’s superior military strength. Thus, Hamas could threaten harm to the hostages if the IDF entered areas that the terror group wanted to protect. 

Rabi recommended that Israel and the Trump administration use the issue of humanitarian aid, and the reconstruction of Gaza as tools to pressure Hamas. 

Israel’s control of the Philadelphi Corridor, including the Rafah border crossing, also adds an element of pressure, allowing Israel to control the amount and type of goods entering the Gaza Strip. 

U.S. and international pressure to move forward with he second phase of the ceasefire deal also complicates Israel’s options for destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

In order to guarantee the release of more hostages, Israel will be required to start negotiations over phase two of the ceasefire deal starting on the 16th day of the ceasefire, which is next week. Those negotiations will be for the release of the male IDF soldiers being held. Hamas is expected to ask for a permanent ceasefire and further IDF withdrawals as part of the terms for the release of the soldiers. 

While Israel faces strong external pressure from the U.S. and the international community to move forward with phase two, Netanyahu faces strong internal pressure not to move forward with the deal, but to return to fighting.

One coalition party, Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power party, has already left the government over the ceasefire deal, while the Religious Zionism party of Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to do so if Israel does not return to military action against Hamas. 

However, while Israel agreed to stop overflights of the Gaza Strip as part of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas appears to be using the pause in fighting to reinforce its forces and recruit. The ceasefire has given the terrorist group a chance to recuperate and reorganize in preparation for another round of fighting, forcing Israel to give up some of its tactical achievements.

The exact implications of these changes is not clear. Israel faces both security and political challenges in Gaza, including questions of who will govern the area after Hamas, which is declared the outcome of either continued fighting or a ceasefire agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again finds himself in a precarious position, trying to maintain U.S. support while also shoring up cracks in his own government.