Half a million Israelis could develop PTSD - new research

A new academic study warns that around half a million Israelis could potentially develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as a consequence of the Hamas Oct. 7 massacres and ongoing war. 

The figure corresponds to approximately 5% of the total Israeli population, or one in 20 individuals. In the United States, this would translate to more than 15 million Americans.

The collaborative study was conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Columbia University and the Israeli Shalvata Mental Health Center.

The complex study was led by Dana Katsoty, a PhD candidate in Psychology at Hebrew University, who explained how she organized the research.

“The entire population was not exposed to a similar degree. Therefore, we created a differential statistical model that depends on the level and extent of exposure to trauma. We divided the population into six different groups in terms of exposure and the model estimates the possibility of PTSD prevalence for each.”

The study predicted that a whopping 31% of Israelis who experienced the Oct. 7 massacres will eventually develop PTSD. Survivors of the Nova Music Festival, along with residents of southern Israeli communities affected by the Hamas invasion, are considered to be at particularly high risk.

“The festival attendees were in very difficult mental states,” explained Daniel Raz, Israel’s commissioner for Involuntary Hospitalization at the Ministry of Justice.

“The survivors went into a turbulent mental state in light of the difficult experiences they went through and dealing with the unbearable loss. The Health Ministry is doing holy work, but there is no doubt that more needs to be done,” Raz added.

NATAL, an Israeli organization assisting with terror-related trauma, reported a significant surge in calls for assistance in November, receiving around 15,000 requests since Oct. 7. This was tenfold the number of calls the organization typically receives in a month. Since then, the number of Israelis in need of mental health assistance has skyrocketed.

The challenge of dealing with the immense post-Oct. 7 trauma is further complicated by the fact that the Israeli public mental health system was already understaffed and underfunded.

“Even before the outbreak of war, the public mental health system was significantly deficient, which was visible through, among other things, repeated claims of a significantly lacking budget, a lack of personnel, long waiting times for psychotherapeutic or psychiatric treatment, and poor infrastructure in mental health hospitals,” the Knesset Health Committee assessed in a special report.

“There has already been a significant increase in the demand for mental health care and assistance, and we anticipate a further increase,” confirmed Health Ministry Dir.-Gen., Moshe Bar Siman Tov. “Effective and quick treatment may reduce the need for prolonged assistance by 50 percent.”

Katsoty underscored that the new study's findings are conservative and emphasized: “It is important to note that [the 31%] is considered an underestimation, as such exposure is expected to result in higher PTSD probability.”