With strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities unlikely, how will Israel respond to regime's missile assault?

Almost two weeks after the Islamic Republic of Iran launched a ballistic missile assault on Israel, the much-expected Israeli response has still not come.

In this analysis, we will explore possible reasons for the delay, before looking at possible scenarios of Israel’s response – where it could strike, and how.

Two weeks without response – when will Israel attack?

After the first direct attack by the Iranian regime against Israel in April, the IDF’s response followed within a week. This time, however, things look different, and there are several possible reasons for it.

At first, reports suggested that Israel’s leadership didn’t want to make fateful decisions until consulting with the Biden administration, which was already angry at the Israeli government for not updating it in time about several of its recent moves, especially the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Then, U.S. officials began outlining red lines, opposing strikes on nuclear and oil facilities, and even reportedly offering Israel compensation for it, thus possibly forcing Israel to reconsider or adapt its plans.

Meanwhile, the Jewish High Holidays began with Rosh Hashana just before the painful October 7 anniversary. Despite speculations that Israel would want to give the anniversary a new meaning by striking its enemies on that day, no strike came.

Then, Defense Minister Gallant was invited for consultations in Washington, with speculations being that the Biden administration aimed to postpone an Israeli strike further. However, Netanyahu ordered to postpone Gallant’s trip until he had talked to Biden on the phone, which they did on Wednesday evening.

They talked about the Israeli plans and U.S. officials said they felt Netanyahu was “attentive” to their red lines regarding strike targets.

After a planned security cabinet meeting on Thursday decides on a course of action, Gallant is expected to travel to the U.S. while being able to present plans that are already approved.

With Yom Kippur coming up this Saturday, it seems likely that a strike will be postponed again – unless Israel decides to strike at the most surprising time, just as its enemies did 51 years ago.

Summing up, it is probable that the Israeli leadership has been taking its time, carefully weighing and calibrating its response to signal the required punishment and deterrence, without dragging the regime into an all-out war.

Will Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program?

Numerous Israeli officials have promised that the Israeli strikes will be substantially bigger than the precise airstrike on an Iranian aerial defense site last April. To quote Defense Minister Gallant, “Our strike will be powerful, precise, and above all – surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened.”

Nevertheless, the much-talked-about “nuclear option” is becoming less likely, despite widespread support within Israel.

The main reason for this is the lack of U.S. support, which is critical in the diplomatic arena, as well as for weapon deliveries.

Recent reports, for example about the Biden-Netanyahu phone call, indicate that Israel is not planning to strike the regime’s nuclear facilities. It’s also important to note that experts have long doubted whether Israel possesses the bunker-buster bombs needed to efficiently destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, some of which are buried beneath mountains.

If Israel decides only to destroy part of the nuclear program, it might delay the regime’s nuclear ambitions but it could also cause it to try and sprint to the finish line.

Finally, the nuclear option is expected to trigger a broad regional war, which could see sustained direct attacks by Iran on Israel and allied countries, as well as an escalation of ongoing attacks by Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria against Israel and U.S. forces in the region.

Israel's cabinet has reportedly defined the prevention of such an all-out regional war as one of its unofficial war aims.

All of this makes a strike on the nuclear program unlikely.

Other possibilities – destroying the regime’s sword and shield

Another possibility is the attack on Iranian oil facilities and other critical infrastructure, like the pipelines and terminals on Kharg Island. “That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” opposition leader Yair Lapid told the Associated Press.

This option is somewhat more likely than striking the nuclear sites but brings some of the same risks. The regime could react to an attack that cripples its entire economy in much the same way as a strike on its nuclear program, again raising the spectre of regional war.

In addition, it would invite retaliatory attacks on oil facilities of the nearby Gulf countries.

Shutting down another country’s economy, and likely ripple effects like Iranian retaliation against other country’s oil infrastructure, are also expected to bring severe diplomatic ramifications. It’s not clear that Israel is ready to risk its existing peace treaties in the region to punish the Islamic Republic.

Therefore, the most likely option at the moment seems to be a severe strike on the regime’s military capabilities, especially targeting the missile sites of the Revolutionary Guard Corps that attacked Israel, and possibly, its sites and allies across the region.

The Jerusalem Post and the New York Times recently reported that Israel plans to attack military and intelligence sites including, for example, launch sites for ballistic missiles and drones, as well as senior commanders.

Other possible targets include the regime’s air defenses, which were targeted in a very limited way the last time.

If Israel takes out the regime’s strike capabilities, its air defense, or its senior generals – or possibly a combination of all of these – it could leave the regime deeply embarrassed and exposed, without any way to defend itself against a possible US-Israeli strike on its nuclear program, maybe led by a future Trump administration.

How can Israel attack?

About possible ways of attack, speculations abound. How Israel strikes Iran could send a message in and of itself.

A large-scale wave of airstrikes across the massive country that is some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) away would demonstrate the almost unparalleled capabilities of Israel’s Air Force.

Israel also has highly capable commando units that could raid and destroy targets in Iran or allied countries or assassinate senior officials. Similar actions could be conducted by Israel’s feared Mossad intelligence service.

Another possibility would be the unveiling of a hitherto secret technological ability to strike fear into Israel’s enemies.

For example, Israel could hit Iran with submarine-launched missiles, or with Israel’s reported but never-used surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, or by demonstrating its world-leading cyber warfare capabilities.

Whatever Israel decides to do, the measure of its strikes’ effectiveness will be whether, and how, the Mullah regime retaliates.

If Iran is sufficiently deterred not to strike back again, it might signal that the regime is on its last legs, and the region - as Netanyahu recently said - on the verge of a “new Middle East.”