Understanding the complexities of Israel’s external and domestic challenges

Following a week of renewed fighting in Gaza and missile attacks from Hezbollah and the Houthis, along with the U.S.’ own attack on the Houthis, in a recent conversation on Inspiration from Zion, military strategist and political analyst IDF reserves Major Elliot Chodoff provided a detailed overview of the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, and how these and pressing domestic issues in Israel conflate and relate to one another. 

With over 35 years of military experience and an academic background that includes advanced degrees and ongoing PhD research, Chodoff offered a nuanced perspective on the multifaceted challenges facing Israel, its neighbors, Iran, the global war on terror, and recent US administration statements and military actions. 

Chodoff addressed recent military incidents in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iran as the chief sponsor of global terror.  He emphasized Israel’s necessary zero-tolerance policy toward attacks, specifically from Hezbollah highlighting a significant event less than 24 hours earlier: six rockets fired from Lebanon toward Israel, with three intercepted and three landing in Lebanon. “Every attack should be responded to as if it succeeded,” Chodoff asserted, underscoring Israel’s proactive stance. 

Notably, Hezbollah’s denial of responsibility for this attack intrigued him. “By denying responsibility, they have removed from themselves any obligation within Lebanon to their own people,” he explained, interpreting this as a sign of Hezbollah’s weakness. “They can’t afford to take losses,” he added, suggesting that this reluctance reflects a strategic retreat rather than a desire to escalate after Israel’s response. 

Turning to Yemen, Chodoff discussed the Iranian-backed Houthi missile threats and the recent military involvement of the United States. He noted that while U.S. strikes have achieved tactical successes, they remain strategic failures until the Houthis cease their aggression. When asked to define effective, he responded, “taking out their targets… until they fold.”

He also clarified the differing operational tempos between the U.S. and Israel, pointing out that America’s vast resources and geographic distance allow for a slower, more deliberate and paced approach, contrasting with Israel’s need for rapid response due to proximity of the threats.

On the Gaza front, Chodoff addressed Israel’s renewed military operations following the expiration of the ceasefire on March 1. He clarified that Israel’s actions – primarily airstrikes and limited ground incursions – did not violate a ceasefire but responded to Hamas’s prior violations of an overarching agreement.

“We gave them over two weeks of free ceasefire and got nothing in return,” he remarked, framing the renewed combat as a pressure tactic to bring Hamas back to hostage negotiations.

A significant portion of the discussion focused on political developments, particularly Steve Witkoff’s recent controversial remarks as Trump’s envoy for hostage negotiations. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, accused of fomenting antisemitism and giving a platform for antisemites, Witkoff suggested that Hamas is not ideologically intractible, a view Chodoff sharply criticized. “It shows a deep, dangerous misunderstanding of who Hamas is,” he warned, attributing this to a Western tendency to misjudge religious fanatics as unreasonable only when overtly aggressive. 

“If that’s your paradigm, and you meet somebody who is not like that (foaming at the mouth aggressive), you assume they’re not so strong in their religious ideology,” he explained, emphasizing that Hamas’s polished leaders in Qatar mask their unwavering strategic goals with an appearance of tactical flexibility.

Chodoff speculated that Witkoff’s perspective might stem from indirect and even direct encounters with Hamas leaders, though he acknowledged this as conjecture. He cautioned that such missteps reflect a broader Western failure to grasp the Middle East’s ideological landscape, citing pre-Oct. 7, 2023, literature that falsely portrayed Hamas as moderating – a notion shattered by the events of that day.

Regarding Iran, Chodoff painted a stark picture of its role as the “bad guys behind the bad guys.” He advised that if he had three minutes with Trump and Witkoff, he’d stress, “Iran is the core of a good deal of this ideology… If you think Hamas and Al Qaeda are bad guys, these are the bad guys behind them.” He advocated for decisive action to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions, arguing, “You set them back by taking out their nuclear capability… beat them down to size so they’re not creating a massive threat.”

He distinguished Iran’s global reach – via proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah – from North Korea’s more localized threats, underscoring its strategic position and revolutionary export through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Domestically, Chodoff expressed concern at Israel’s recent and renewed internal divisions, which he deemed “in some cases worse” than pre-Oct. 7 levels. He identified three protest groups – hostage families, anti-war advocates, and anti-Netanyahu factions – whose conflated agendas exacerbate tensions.

While sympathetic to the hostage families, he critiqued the anti-war crowd’s focus on Palestinian suffering as disingenuous when paired with public calls to end the war for the hostages’ sake.

He sharply criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to revive judicial reform amidst ongoing conflicts, calling it “a mistake at this point politically.” Combined with coalition management issues, such as tensions surrounding ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, and the “Qatargate” scandal involving alleged funds from Qatar to Netanyahu’s office, these moves fuel unrest. 

Chodoff found Netanyahu’s abrupt firing of senior officials, including the Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic security) head, particularly troubling, especially given the lack of process. “He’s called in on Sunday, he’s fired, and the government meets on Thursday to approve it – no hearing, no meeting with him,” questioning Netanyahu’s claim of distrust since Oct. 7: “Then why is he still in office in March 2025?”

The tipping point, Chodoff argued, was Netanyahu’s refusal to honor a Supreme Court injunction against the firing. “For a Prime Minister to say, the Supreme Court has no authority over me… that’s a red line to many of us,” he declared, warning of “structural disintegration of the system.”

He rejected Netanyahu’s “deep state” narrative, insisting that the implication by Netanyahu is, “’I’m the only one who can save the country.’ I don’t buy that anybody is irreplaceable.”

It’s noteworthy that all these incidents took place in the course of a week. Nevertheless, Chodoff highlighted issues that need to be followed closely: Syria, Turkey, and Russia’s influence via Ukraine, but emphasized a looming domestic crisis: IDF manpower shortages.

With some reservists enduring 300-400 days of duty since Oct. 7, 2023, and reservists’ response rates dropping from 130% to 50%, citing a poignant anecdote of a reservist’s wife threatening to leave if her husband attended officer school. “Multiply that times 300,000-400,000 troops… that’s concerning.” 

Combining multi-front external threats and internal strife, all eyes are on everything, Israel remains resilient yet strained, facing both external aggression and self-inflicted wounds.