THE WEEK AHEAD: Iran nuclear deal approaching, Ukraine’s First Lady in Israel and new settlement expansion plan gets a green light

Iran nuclear deal

First Lady of Ukraine in Israel

Settlement expansions

New West Bank road

Judicial Selection Committee

Uber stops Israeli operation

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Indirect talks between the United States and Iran to achieve a new nuclear deal have reached advanced stages, according to reports. The Biden administration is trying to push for a freeze-for-freeze agreement, under which Iran will reportedly curb its uranium enrichment at 60% and the U.S. will provide Tehran with nearly $20 billion in sanctions relief. In addition, Iran will commit to stopping proxy militia attacks on U.S. personnel in Syria and Iraq and release three American hostages. Iran is also set to receive access to frozen funds in Iraq and South Korea, estimated at about $17 billion altogether.

Unlike in 2015 with then-President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Biden White House hopes to keep it all quiet to avoid domestic and international criticism. That means no photo-ops, no official signing, no ceremonies and since the deal is not branded as a ‘nuclear deal,’ don’t expect any congressional oversight.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes Washington has already made up its mind and is currently waiting for a response from the ayatollah regime. Either way, Netanyahu said such a mini-deal “will not oblige Israel.” Against this backdrop, the Israeli prime minister still hasn’t received an invitation to visit the White House, even though Israeli President Isaac Herzog expects to get one soon. The last thing Biden would want now is a vocal Netanyahu coming out strongly against his foreign policy on U.S. media or in Congress.

UKRAINE’S FIRST LADY IN ISRAEL

Olena Zelenska, the wife of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will pay an official visit to Israel this week. She will be hosted by her Israeli counterpart Michal Herzog and meet with President Herzog on Monday. The Herzogs extended an invitation to the first lady during their meeting in London in May at King Charles III's coronation ceremony.

While in Israel, Ukraine’s first lady will visit Ukrainian soldiers who are recovering from serious wounds in the battlefield. Israel received some 20 soldiers for rehabilitation last September and only 11 of them have returned home so far. Zelenska is also expected to meet with other Israeli officials to discuss support for her country and raise awareness of the suffering caused by the ongoing conflict since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

SETTLEMENT EXPANSION

The Israeli government will formally announce its intention to add thousands of additional housing units this week to existing settlements in the West Bank. Under the new plan, some 4,570 settlement homes will get the green light from Israel’s right-wing government. According to Axios, Jerusalem has already informed Washington about the initiative.

The U.S. Biden administration stated in the past that it opposes any measures that would undermine the prospects for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The White House is reportedly pressuring Israel to scrap back the plan or to minimize it as much as possible.

NEW WEST BANK ROAD

A new road will open this week in a strategic area of the West Bank after two years of construction. The four-lane road will bypass the Palestinian refugee camp Al-Arroub, located north of Hebron. It connects to the Gush Etzion settlement complex, as well as Bethlehem. The road will replace the dangerous Route 60, which saw several attacks on Israeli vehicles. The new route is one of two that Israel has built to improve safer infrastructure in the West Bank. They go around flashpoint Palestinian villages, such as Huwara, to avoid further confrontation between Jewish and Arab residents of the area.

JUDICIAL SELECTION COMMITTEE

Israel is still deeply divided over the government’s plan to overhaul the judiciary through a controversial reform. A key component of the reform offers to change the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee that appoints judges to the High Court of Justice and lower courts. Last week, at the end of a turbulent day in the Knesset, MK Karine Elharrar from the Yesh Atid party was selected to fill one of the two vacant seats of parliamentarians in the committee. A second vote will be withheld within 30 days.

The drama is expected to continue this week when Israel’s Bar Association holds elections to appoint its new leadership on Tuesday, June 20. Since two Bar representatives also sit on the Judicial Selection Committee, the race for the presidency of the attorney organization is also viewed as a major battle between the political left and right.

UBER STOPS ISRAELI OPERATION

Uber announced it would cease its operations in Israel this week. The reason behind this decision is Israeli regulation. Uber began operating in Israel in 2014 with the intention to provide the Uber X service, which allows any driver to transport passengers for a fee, even if they don’t have a license of a taxi driver. The company’s goal faced backlash from existing taxi drivers and other public transportation services. It led to political pressure that made Uber’s business model impossible in Israel. There was one attempt to allow the Uber X service in 2019, but it was eventually backtracked in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This week we are also keeping an eye on these developing stories: