Israeli strikes on Iran leave Tehran ‘alarmed’ after severe damage to ballistic missile factories, air defense systems

Following Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets on Saturday morning, analysts are attempting to ascertain the level of impact on Iran’s military capabilities. 

According to assessments from multiple news sites and satellite image analysis, Israel’s strike primarily targeted air defense systems protecting critical oil infrastructure, ballistic missile production sites, and several military targets, including the secretive Parchin base near Tehran.

The Israeli strikes have caused “deep alarm” across the Iranian regime, according to a report in the New York Times. 

While the Israeli strikes appear to be precisely targeted, and relatively minor in terms of visible damages, anonymous Iranian officials told the NYT that the destruction to air defense systems has left critical energy and economic sites vulnerable to a follow-up attack should Iran choose to respond to the Israeli strikes. 

Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran’s oil and gas industry, told the NYT, “Israel is sending a clear message to us.” 

“This can have very serious economic consequences for Iran, and now that we understand the stakes we need to act wise and not continue the tensions,” he continued. 

While Israel seems to have respected U.S. President Joe Biden’s request not to directly strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities, by disabling the air defense systems protecting these sites, Israel signals that they could be targeted in future operations.

Iran’s military acknowledged that the IDF strikes targeted radar air defense systems in Khuzestan, Ilam and Tehran, but claimed they caused minimal damage. 

A report in Reuters, based on an analysis of commercial satellite imagery, claimed that struck facilities used to mix solid fuel for ballistic missiles in Khojir, a missile production site near the capital of Tehran. 

The analysis was conducted by David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank. 

The two analysts concluded that Israel also struck buildings in the Parchin military complex previously used for nuclear weapons research. Albright told Reuters that one of the buildings was a facility for mixing solid fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles. 

Eveleth told Reuters that the strike on Khojir, while a limited operation, landed a significant blow to Iran’s ability to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles. 

"Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers," Eveleth told Reuters. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.” 

“The strikes appear to be highly accurate,” he stated. According to reports, at least 12 planetary mixers used to mix the solid fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles had been struck. 

Saudi newspaper Elaph claimed the mixers were used to create fuel for the Khaybar and Qassem ballistic missiles used to attack Israel at the beginning of October. Elaph claimed Iran would need at least two years to replace the mixers and resume manufacturing the solid fuel. 

The New York Times report also stated that Israel disabled at least three Russian-made S-300 air defense systems in the vicinity of Tehran. The systems provided protection for Imam Khomeini International Airport and the nearby Malad missile base. In addition, the strikes significantly reduced the air defenses around the Iranian capital and nearby military facilities. 

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in a phone call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, said, “Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.” 

However, Iran said it reserves the right to retaliate, claiming that four Iranian soldiers were killed in the strikes. 

In a post on 𝕏, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote: “We strongly condemn the criminal attack on Iranian military centers as a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Four of our Army heroes sacrificed their lives in defeating this reckless and cowardly assault.”

Araghchi said Iran has the right to retaliate and called on the world to “unite against this common threat to international peace & security.”