Israeli strikes on Iran leave Tehran ‘alarmed’ after severe damage inflicted to ballistic missile factories and air defenses

Following Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend, analysts are attempting to ascertain the level of impact on Iran’s military capabilities. 

According to assessments from several news sites, and analysis of satellite images, Israel’s strike primarily targeted air defense systems designed to protect critical oil infrastructure, ballistic missile manufacturing sites, as well as several military targets, including the secretive Parchin base near Tehran. 

The Israeli strikes have caused “deep alarm” in the Iranian regime, according to a report in the New York Times. 

The Times spoke with several Iranian and Israeli officials regarding the strikes. 

While the Israeli strikes appear to be precisely targeted, and relatively minor in terms of visible damages, the anonymous Iranian officials told the Times that the destruction of critical air defense systems has left critical energy and economic sites vulnerable to a follow up attack should Iran choose to respond to the Israeli strikes. 

Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran’s oil and gas industry, told the Times, “Israel is sending a clear message to us.” 

“This can have very serious economic consequences for Iran, and now that we understand the stakes we need to act wise and not continue the tensions,” he continued. 

While Israel appears to have honored the request of U.S. President Joe Biden not to strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities directly, by taking out the air defense systems guarding these facilities, the Jewish state is indicating that those sites could be targets in a future strike. 

Iran’s military acknowledged that Israel’s strikes targeted radar air defense systems in Khuzestan, Ilam and Tehran, but said the attacks caused little damage. 

A report in Reuters, based on analysis of commercial satellite imagery, claimed that Israel hit facilities used to mix solid fuel for ballistic missiles in Khojir, a missile production site near the capital of Tehran. 

The analysis was conducted by David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank. 

The two analysts concluded that Israel also struck buildings in the Parchin military complex which had formerly been used for nuclear weapons research. 

Albright told Reuters that one of the buildings struck at the Parchin military research site is a facility for mixing solid fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles. 

Eveleth told Reuters that the strike on Khojir, while a limited operation, appears to have landed a significant blow to Iran’s ability to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles. 

"Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers," Eveleth told Reuters. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.” 

“The strikes appear to be highly accurate,” Eveleth stated. Reports said that at least 12 planetary mixers used to mix the solid fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles had been struck. 

Saudi newspaper Elaph claimed the mixers were used to create fuel for the Khaybar and Qassem ballistic missiles used to attack Israel at the beginning of October. It claimed that Iran would need at least two years to replace the mixers and resume manufacturing the solid fuel. 

The New York Times report also claims that Israel disabled at least three Russian-made S-300 air defense systems in the vicinity of Tehran. The systems provided protection for the Imam Khomeini International Airport and the nearby Malad missile base. 

The strikes significantly reduce the air defenses around the Iranian capital and nearby military facilities. 

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in a phone call with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that “Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.” 

However, Iran said it reserves the right to retaliate, claiming that four Iranian soldiers were killed in the strikes. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghch, posted to X, saying, “We strongly condemn the criminal attack on Iranian military centers as a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Four of our Army heroes sacrificed their lives in defeating this reckless and cowardly assault.”

He said that Iran has the right to retaliate and called on the world to “unite against this common threat to international peace & security.”