Israeli government estimates only half of hostages in Gaza still alive

Israeli officials believe half of the hostages being held by the Hamas terror group in Gaza may have already perished.

In a closed-door session with the Israeli Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in September, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed the official estimate, Israel Hayom reported on Sunday.

The news source reports that this distressing figure was obtained from intelligence collected from public sources and classified operational data. Government analysis indicates that 50 of the hostages are likely already deceased, while the official count of those confirmed to have died in captivity stands at 37.

The latest figures indicate that 97 of the 251 Israeli hostages who were abducted by Hamas terrorists in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack are still held captive in Gaza as of today.

Israel Hayom explained the reason for the disparity in figures is due to the stringent standards required for someone to be pronounced officially deceased by Israeli authorities, which rely on medical and religious criteria. The report adds that although there may not yet be conclusive proof according to these standards, “intelligence strongly indicates additional hostages did not survive.”

Families of the hostages have been kept informed of the situation and the government's assessment.

“Tracking the hostages' status serves multiple critical purposes beyond negotiations,” according to the news report. “This intelligence helps commanders plan operations to prevent unintended casualties – whether from IDF strikes or deliberate harm by Hamas, which has ordered its fighters to kill hostages at the first sign of any rescue attempt.”

It is believed that in addition to the confirmed deaths, which include the six hostages recently executed in Rafah tunnels when IDF troops were searching for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, another seven were likely killed as a result of military operations.

With the hostages having been held in captivity under terrible conditions for 393 days, concerns remain that the number of dead may be even higher. 

In late November 2023, a hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas resulted in at least 105 civilians returning home to Israel. Another eight hostages were rescued by IDF troops in ground operations, and 37 bodies were recovered. Three of the Israeli victims were killed by friendly fire while trying to escape. 

In addition, Hamas is holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.

The pressure to return all of the remaining hostages continues to build, especially for families which do not know the fate of their loved ones.

“We are working all the time to return them,” Netanyahu told the Likud party in a closed-door meeting at the Knesset last week, according to The Jerusalem Post.

“At this point, we are trying to achieve partial solutions,” he added.

The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) stated if a proposal to release four hostages in exchange for a 48-hour ceasefire in Gaza was presented, “the Prime Minister would accept it on the spot."

However, the families of the hostages and activists protesting with them each week are demanding a one-stage deal and refuse to contemplate a hostage deal that would leave anyone in Gaza.