'Intense round of diplomacy and military preparation' by US reportedly leading Iran to reconsider major attack on Israel

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote in a report Tuesday that Iran might be reconsidering it response to last week's assassinations of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh. 

In his opinion piece, Ignatius contends this shift is due, in part, to the diplomatic efforts of the Biden administration. The White House has been engaged in back-channel talks with Iran, urging restraint in its response, sent additional naval and air support, and has given blunt warnings to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to place obstacles in the hostage negotiations, Ignatius said. 

The Nobel laureate noted that although U.S. President Joe Biden will be leaving the White House soon, he has been busy over the past week conducting “an intense round of diplomacy and military preparation to stave off a catastrophic war in the Middle East.” 

Ignatius wrote that Iran's difficulty in deciding on a response is partly due to confusion about the circumstances surrounding Haniyeh’s death.

There have have been mixed reports regarding Haniyeh’s death, even from regime-affiliated media within Iran. 

While most Iranian news sites have written that Haniyeh was killed by a missile, possibly even a short-range missile launched from within Iran, a few others have reported, in line with Western estimates, that Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device placed at the scene weeks before the explosion. 

According to Ignatius’ analysis, if Haniyeh was killed by a missile, Tehran would feel compelled to make “a similar Iranian response.” However, if he was killed by a concealed bomb, that would prompt “a different response.” 

The Post columnist also believes Iran may have been “dissuaded by the U.S. show of force this week,” along with secret communications passed through the Swiss embassy advocating a limited response. 

At the same time, Ignatius says Biden has been pressuring Netanyahu to be “a good partner” in the hostage negotiations. He wrote that U.S. leaders admired the tactical brilliance of the the Shukr and Haniyeh assassinations, but felt that they were “strategically unwise” under the present circumstances. 

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders seem unconvinced by Ignatius' analysis. Israel Hayom reported on Wednesday that, according to Israeli assessments, Iran and Hezbollah are calculating their steps and may try to launch a combined response that would overwhelm Israeli air defenses. This could reportedly include attacks from Lebanon, Iran and Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen. 

The report stated that the Iranian regime and its regional terror proxies are trying to find a way to crack Israel's defense systems, choose key targets that won't escalate into a regional conflict, and simultaneously coordinate its response with its proxies. 

Israel has been carefully watching Iran’s actions to see if a preemptive strike, especially on Iranian launchers, could prevent significant harm to Israeli defense sites. 

The report stated the Israeli response to the attack by Hezbollah and Iran will be analyzed according to its goals, focusing on the types of munitions used, the targets chosen and any resulting damage.