JERUSALEM – We still do not know who the next president of the United States will be, and we may not for some time due to bitter disagreements between the two campaigns over counting procedures and impending litigation that could wind up before the Supreme Court.
Still, an exclusive exit poll commissioned by ALL ISRAEL NEWS provides intriguing insights into the American electorate.
What’s more, the results reveal some big surprises.
- President Donald Trump actually lost significant ground among Evangelical Christians
- Former Vice President Biden lost significant ground among Hispanics and African Americans
Over the next few days, therefore, I will be reporting on:
- Who voted for Biden?
- Who voted for Trump?
- How did Evangelicals, Jews and Catholics vote?
- How did Hispanics and African Americans vote?
- What do Americans want from their next president regarding the Iran nuclear threat?
- What steps do they believe the next American president should take to advance peace in the Middle East?
The margin of error of the survey was +/-3.1 percent.
WHO WON THE POPULAR VOTE?Let’s start with the big picture.
The mainstream media polls that forecast a massive “blue wave” for the Democrats did not materialize – the race was far closer than most political analysts predicted.
Our exit poll found that former Vice President Joe Biden won 50.1 percent of the popular vote nationally.
President Trump won 48.3 percent.
The remainder voted for a mix of other, mostly unknown, candidates.
Given that the Democrat presidential candidate typically wins both California and New York overwhelmingly, it is not surprising that Biden won the overall popular vote.
Hillary Clinton did the same in 2016.
HOW DID AMERICANS VOTE FOR CONGRESS?The battle to control the House of Representatives and the Senate was also very close.
- 48.4 percent of Americans said they voted for Democrat candidates for Congress
- 47.9 percent said they voted for Republicans.
DID YOU VOTE EARLY OR ON ELECTION DAY?Given COVID-19 fears, and the prospect of a massive turnout – the largest in American history – a stunning 64 percent of Americans who voted did so early.
- 39.7 percent voted early by absentee ballot
- 24.3 percent voted early in-person
Of those who voted early, Biden won 62.7 percent to Trump’s 35.4 percent.
Of those who voted on Election Day, Trump won 62.3 percent to Biden’s 35.8 percent.
HOW DID EVANGELICALS VOTE?
As expected, Trump won the white, born-again, Evangelical Christian vote decisively.
The big story, however, is that he slightly underperformed in this critically important group from 2016.
Our exit poll found that 79.4 percent of Evangelicals voted for Trump.
This is more than any Republican presidential candidate in the last 20 years – except Trump himself in 2016.
In 2016, Trump won fully 81 percent of Evangelicals, according data from Pew Research.
If Trump ends up losing his reelection bid – still far from unclear at this point, but certainly possible – this 1.6-point difference could prove to be the determining factor.
Biden, meanwhile, won 18.6 percent of the Evangelical vote. This is 2.6-points higher than Hillary Clinton, who won only 16 percent of the Evangelical vote in 2016, according to Pew.
HOW DID CATHOLICS VOTE?Trump won the Catholic vote, but narrowly.
Our exit poll found that Trump won 49.9 percent of Americans who identify themselves as Roman Catholic.
But Trump won 52 percent of Catholics in 2016.
Biden, who identifies as Catholic, won 48.2 percent.
Hillary Clinton won only 45 percent of Catholics in 2016.
HOW DID THE JEWISH COMMUNITY VOTE?Biden overwhelmingly won the support of the American Jewish community, as most Democratic presidential candidates do.
Our poll found that Biden won 71.7 percent of the Jewish vote.
That said, Trump, whose daughter Ivanka converted to Judaism to marry Jared Kushner, did slightly better than in 2016, and compared to Republican candidates before him.
Trump won 27.7 percent of the Jewish vote.
In 2016, he won only 24 percent.
In 2000, George W. Bush won only 19 percent of the Jewish vote, though he won 25 percent in his 2004 re-election campaign, according to Pew Research.
John McCain won only 21 percent of the Jewish vote in 2008.
Mitt Romney did the best in recent years, winning 30 percent of the Jewish vote, but still losing the presidency.
HOW DID HISPANICS VOTE?Biden won the Hispanic community vote by a 2-to-1 margin.
Biden took 64.3 percent — but he underperformed, compared to Hillary Clinton who won 66 percent in 2016.
Trump, however, won 32.2 percent – 4.2-points higher than his 28 percent showing in 2016.
If Biden loses the presidency, this could turn out to be a significant factor.
HOW DID AFRICAN AMERICANS VOTE?Our exit poll found that Biden won 81 percent of the African American community vote.
But this was a striking 10-point drop from Hillary Clinton, who won 91 percent of the black vote in 2016, according to Pew Research.
In 2020, Trump won 17.8 percent of the African American vote, three times his 6 percent showing in 2016.
Trump won 12.3 percent of the votes of black women.
Remarkably, he won 29.1 percent of the votes of black men.
Again, if Biden loses his bid for the presidency, this – combined with his significant underperforming with Hispanic Americans – could prove decisive.
HOW DID PRO-LIFE AMERICANS VOTE?It is worth looking specifically at how “pro-life” Americans voted, as a distinct group separate from Protestants or Catholics.
While some are pro-life based on their religious views, there are other pro-life Americans, as well.
Our exit poll found that 48.7 percent of Americans regard themselves as “pro-life,” while 51.2 percent regard themselves as “pro-choice.”
In 2020, Trump won 63.6 percent of the pro-life vote.
Yet remarkably, Biden won 34.5 percent, despite the fact that he and Sen. Kamala Harris support abortion-on-demand and taxpayer funding of abortions.
Of those Americans who consider themselves “strongly pro-life,” Trump won 70.7 percent.
Still, Biden won a stunning 28.5 percent of those “strongly pro-life.”
Given that most pro-life leaders argued that Trump was the “most pro-life President in American history,” it will be important for them to analyze why Trump did not receive a higher percentage of this vote.
HOW DID PRO-CHOICE AMERICANS VOTE?Biden won this group, but not by as high a margin as one might have expected.
Biden received the support of 65 percent of Americans who support the right to an abortion.
Trump – who used to be avowedly pro-choice himself in his younger years – won 33.9 percent.
Joel C. Rosenberg is the editor-in-chief of ALL ISRAEL NEWS and ALL ARAB NEWS and the President and CEO of Near East Media. A New York Times best-selling author, Middle East analyst, and Evangelical leader, he lives in Jerusalem with his wife and sons.