After fall of Assad, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad cautiously acknowledge new political landscape

The Hamas terrorist organization officially addressed the fall of the Assad regime in Syria for the first time on Monday, congratulating the Syrian people and calling on all factions to unite. 

“We and our Palestinian people stand firmly with the great Syrian people,” the statement read. “And we affirm the unity of Syria and the integrity of its territories, and respect for the Syrian people, their will, independence and political choices.” 

Yoni Ben Menachem, a Middle East expert and senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, spoke with Channel 14 in an interview on Tuesday morning. He explained: “Hamas had very poor relations with Assad since the Syrian civil war and even moved its headquarters from Damascus to Doha, Qatar. Now, Hamas is enthusiastic about the fact that the Sunnis have won and taken control of the regime – and therefore the organization hopes that the rebel leader, al-Jolani, will allow them to return and establish themselves in Damascus.” 

According to Ben Menachem, Hamas wants to return to Syria after losing its major military foothold in the Gaza Strip during the war and anti-terror operations in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank).

“We need to take into account that they (Hamas) will now want to return to Syria, due to the activities of the IDF and the dismantling of their terror infrastructure,” Ben Menachem stated. 

However, he also said the alignment of Syrian rebel groups like HTS (Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham) with the Turkish government coincides with Hamas' interests. 

“At the same time, it is important to understand that Turkey has a significant influence on what is happening in the country, as President Erdogan is known as a strong Hamas supporter who frequently hosts senior Hamas officials in Ankara and Istanbul,” he explained. 

In their statement, Hamas leaders also expressed their hope that “Syria can continue its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people and their resistance to achieve the goals of their just cause and consolidating Syria’s leadership role at the level of the Arab and Islamic nation and at the regional and international levels.”

Ben Menachem noted that the rebels' political stance toward Israel remains uncertain.

“While they recently released a video of a group of rebels declaring their intention to liberate Jerusalem, al-Jolani presents a moderate image and is trying to win favor with the West,” Ben Menachem argued. “This is in order to consolidate his rule in the country.” 

However, he also expressed his belief that the jihadist ideology will probably not change, requiring continued vigilance from Israel. 

“I believe we will see an internal split in Syria in the near future,” he assessed. 

During the interview, the Middle East analyst mentioned a recent attempt by Iran to ignite a new intifada (uprising) in Judea and Samaria, after the IDF eliminated two terrorists in the Tubas area of the Jordan Valley. 

“Although this did not make significant headlines in the Israeli media, the IDF and Shin Bet recently exposed large explosives prepared in Iran that were intended for attacks in Israel," Ben Menachem noted. 

He estimates that Iran has not given up its attempts to inflame tensions in the Palestinian Territories, saying, “The Iranians are trying to open a new front against Israel in light of our achievements in Gaza and Lebanon. This was, in fact, a kind of encouragement for the terrorist groups in northern Samaria trying to lead an intifada.” 

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a terror group more closely tied to Iran than Hamas, also cautiously expressed its opinion that the change in the Syrian government is “an internal matter.” 

According to Seth Frantzman, senior Middle East Correspondent and analyst for The Jerusalem Post, the two terror groups in Gaza are trying to position themselves to cooperate with the Syrian government in Damascus, while staying in the good graces of Iran. 

Despite its weakened position following the loss of several key figures in its proxy strategy, Iran is expected to persist in its efforts to undermine Israel and incite terror activities within the Palestinian population.